Reassuring Reserves, a Risk Displaced

As of October 29, 2026, Sweden showed a fill rate of 90.45% and Denmark 85.69%, or 7.36 TWh in reserve for the latter. At this level, the immediate danger of a physical shortage appears limited in both countries. The risk shifts to price, determined well beyond Nordic borders.

Hormuz: A Risk Measured in Idled Vessels

The Joint Maritime Information Center has recorded 18 confirmed attacks in the strait since October 6 and maintains its threat assessment at "SEVERE." As of November 1, approximately 490 vessels were waiting outside the strait, while only 119 transits, facilitated by the United States, were recorded between October 29 and 31. On October 30, the LNG carrier AL MAYEDA of Nakilat was hit in the Gulf: a fire broke out, with no injuries, and the vessel remained operational. Qatar denounced a threat to global energy security.

From Risk Premium to European Bill

The mechanism is simple. Crude and LNG cargoes exposed, transit times extended: buyers demand a premium. Europe, competing with other LNG importers, pays it. The benchmarks in the file point in this direction: Brent at $117, European gas above €101/MWh for the first time since 2022. Even a strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, 550,000 barrels per day, was enough to push prices up by about 1%. The CEO of TotalEnergies also estimates that Europe's short-sighted storage policy will drive up costs.

Electricity reflects this tension. On October 30, the day-ahead price reached €250.85/MWh in Czechia, €254.14 in Switzerland, €250.56 in Denmark (DK-1) and €211.19 in Portugal, versus €77.51 in Finland. This gap suggests, without proving it, that exposure to marginal gas weighs more heavily than the level of local storage.

Diversification Remains a Project

Meeting in Montreal on October 29 and 30, the European Union and Canada decided on a feasibility study for LNG exports to Europe. No volume, price, timeline or terminal has been set. Liquefaction, transport and regasification require investment and contracts: this avenue does not ease the coming winter.

What the Data Does Not Say

The file quantifies storage only for two modest-sized markets, with no aggregate rate for the Union. Brent and gas levels come from headlines, without historical data. The AL MAYEDA remained in service and no disrupted Qatari LNG volumes are documented. Finally, the link between gas prices and electricity spreads remains a hypothesis.

A Proportionate Conclusion

The observed Nordic stocks protect against physical disruption, not against volatility. As long as traffic through Hormuz remains impeded, the risk premium will continue to weigh on Europe's energy bill, regardless of how much gas is stored.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.