A Shock That Spreads Through Prices

Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the open conflict in January, energy is no longer a simple expense line: it has become the vector of cost-push inflation. The Philippines, which depend on the Gulf for more than 90% of their crude, have been in a state of energy emergency since March. Elsewhere, the mechanism is more diffuse but identical: energy makes transport and materials more expensive, companies pass on the costs, households absorb them.

Europe: A Winter Under Gas Strain

Germany has filled only 61% of its storage, against the 80% required of member states. Yet it holds more than one-fifth of European capacity. TTF gas exceeds €100/MWh, and December 2026, January and February 2027 contracts remain above that threshold: operators anticipate neither a lull nor a surge in LNG. The increased reliance on coal, which analysts saw rising 25% in the EU by March 2027, is becoming the adjustment variable.

Asia: Demand Returns, Margins Suffer

The Malaysian manufacturing PMI rose from 49.9 to 51.0 in October, driven by some of the most dynamic orders in four and a half years, notably thanks to artificial intelligence. But input costs and selling prices are accelerating at the same pace, deliveries are delayed for the eleventh consecutive month, and one-year optimism falls to its lowest since April. Demand is there, profitability less so.

United States: Growth Without Purchasing Power

GDP grew 3.4% at an annualized rate in the third quarter and unemployment remains at 4.2%. Yet inflation reaches 3.7% over twelve months, gasoline has jumped more than 50% since January, diesel 77%, and average real wages are down 0.7%. The fuel cost of the conflict is estimated at about $1,120 per household. The economy grows richer, part of the households grows poorer.

Markets Still in Fear

The CNN Fear & Greed index stood at 26.24 on October 31 and November 1, then at 32.34 on November 2: a slight rebound, but far below the midpoint of the 0-to-100 scale.

The Limits of Interpretation

Several elements temper this diagnosis. Activity is holding up, and the German regulator estimates that LNG purchases during winter could suffice to secure supply. Above all, detailed macroeconomic series were not available: without history, neither the gold/copper ratio (8,583.94) nor the sentiment index can be situated in time, and the link between energy and market mood remains a plausible hypothesis, not a proven one.

What Can Reasonably Be Concluded

The facts converge toward cost-push inflation that erodes margins and purchasing power without interrupting growth. Market caution matches this profile. The risk lies less in an immediate collapse than in a gradual erosion of confidence, as long as energy prices remain high.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.