A Chip Trade Shifting Up a Gear

Over April-September, Japanese sales of semiconductor-related products reached 7.66 trillion yen ($48.5 billion), up 41% in value. These products account for 12% of the country's exports and are closing in on the 18% share held by automobiles. Their contribution to export growth (4.2 points) already exceeds that of cars and parts (2.5 points). Total exports reached 63.44 trillion yen, a record since 1979.

A Price Effect More Than a Volume Effect

Scarcity is the driver. For DRAM, the average export price jumped 140% to 5,844 yen per unit, while volumes rose just 25%. AI data centers are absorbing supply and producers are prioritizing higher-value products. The unit price of exported MOS memory circuits was 4.8 times higher in September than a year earlier. Imports of South Korean integrated circuits rose 250% to 354 billion yen, a sign of an increasingly interlinked Asian supply chain.

Valued Winners, Compressed Losers

Market forecasts reflect the effect: Kioxia's net profit for the current fiscal year is expected to increase tenfold to 5.5 trillion yen. At the other end of the chain, rising component costs are weighing on automakers: Toyota estimates the impact of material costs and other factors at 980 billion yen less in operating profit, excluding the effects of instability in the Middle East. The same trade flow thus creates value upstream and destroys it downstream.

An AI Premium Under Strain

These valuations assume sustained demand and flawless execution. Intel offers an illustration: its adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter more than doubled (+126% to $0.52), but the stock fell 28% to $66.2 after a fourth-quarter target of $0.25 against $0.43 expected. The case of Firmus, a data center group preparing an IPO, is even clearer. Its valuation, which rose from $1.85 billion to nearly $44 billion in just over a year, is being revised. According to one analyst, 97% of its contracted revenue rests on sites not yet built.

What the Data Doesn't Say

Several limitations apply. Kioxia's figures are consensus forecasts, not results. The file contains no stock prices for memory manufacturers. The available European trade series aggregate all products and do not allow chips to be isolated. Finally, Intel and Firmus are not memory exporters: they illustrate the sensitivity of AI valuations, not a direct trade mechanism.

A Cautious Reading

Chip flows above all reveal a transfer of value toward AI component suppliers, financed by user industries. The corrections at Intel and Firmus show that markets are now testing the durability of this premium. Nothing indicates a reversal, however: the question is whether current prices are sustainable, not whether demand exists.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.