A Vital Artery Paralyzed, Then Reopened Under Duress The Strait of Hormuz illustrates how a single chokepoint can destabilize global supply. After Israeli-American strikes launched against Iran in lat

A Vital Artery Paralyzed, Then Reopened Under Duress

The Strait of Hormuz illustrates how a single chokepoint can destabilize global supply. After Israeli-American strikes launched against Iran in late February 2026, the maritime route was de facto closed. By March 2026, export volumes from the Middle East had fallen to 6 million barrels per day. For an infrastructure on which a large share of global oil trade depends, the incident is no marginal disruption: it is a systemic rupture.

Seven months later, the picture has changed. Flow-tracking data published by Kpler on October 1, 2026, show at least 16.5 million barrels per day exported from the region in September, roughly 80% of the levels that transited through Hormuz before the conflict. JPMorgan estimates that the Middle East's export arteries are operational again. Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, notes on his side that more players are willing to attempt the crossing and are succeeding.

For Agata Loskot-Strachota, an energy security specialist at the Centre for Eastern Studies, this return to 80% is good news. But she also stresses that the September situation reflects emergency measures rather than a lasting solution. That is precisely where the resilience challenge lies: flows are restored, infrastructure security is not.

Workarounds That Shift Vulnerability Instead of Reducing It

To maintain volumes, industry players have multiplied workarounds. Each addresses the immediate threat, but creates or exposes another weak point.

The East-West Pipeline, a New Potential Target

Saudi Arabia is routing more crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. This asset, reserved for Saudi Aramco, allows the strait to be bypassed. Michael Tamvakis, a specialist in international commodity trade at the Bayes Business School, City St George's, University of London, warns however that this facility could just as easily be targeted by Iran or the Houthis. In other words, concentrating flows on a single pipeline turns an alternative into a top-tier critical infrastructure, with the risk profile that entails.

Transponders Off and Tanker Trucks: The Blind Spot of Traceability

A growing number of cargo ships are cutting their transponders to evade Iranian surveillance. This practice, defensive for shipowners, in turn degrades visibility on maritime traffic and complicates flow tracking for all players. A vessel's safety here comes at the cost of greater opacity across the system as a whole.

Iraq, for its part, is turning to tanker trucks. A solution Michael Tamvakis deems unviable over the long term, as it is far more costly and limited than large-volume maritime transport. Road logistics multiplies exposure points and cannot absorb volumes comparable to those of an oil tanker.

Refining, the Chain's Exposed Link

Vulnerability is not limited to crude export routes. Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure have damaged refineries across the territory, reducing the amount of refined products available. Dag Harald Claes, a specialist in oil geopolitics at the University of Oslo, recalls that Russia remains a major exporter to China and India. Damage to these sites therefore reverberates well beyond Russia's borders.

This refining strain is fueling a market that Agata Loskot-Strachota calls completely crazy. Pump prices are so high that refineries are buying all available crude, even at very high prices, with the certainty of reselling diesel at a comfortable margin. According to Michael Tamvakis, this demand keeps prices elevated even as Gulf exports rise. The bottleneck has shifted from the sea to the processing units.

The Public Response: Emergency Stocks and Military Escorts

Faced with these fragilities, states' response rests on two main levers. The first is military: the United States is escorting cargo ships through the strait, a setup the US military cannot sustain indefinitely. Protecting infrastructure through armed presence remains costly and temporary by nature.

The second lever concerns strategic reserves. Yet this safety cushion has thinned considerably. In the United States, strategic reserves have never been so low since the 1980s, according to Alexandre Baradez, a market analyst at IG France. China has also drawn on its own stocks to cushion the shock, by reducing its imports, Michael Tamvakis indicates.

On October 2, 2026, the G7 announced its intention to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil over the next four months. French President Emmanuel Macron estimated that this decision should bring prices down. The measure relieves the market in the short term, but it further depletes already strained reserves, raising the question of their replenishment before any new crisis.

A Market That Now Prices In Structural Risk

The contrast with June is illuminating. A memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran had then sent the barrel tumbling from 95 to 65 dollars within days, Alexandre Baradez recalls. The prospect of lasting peace negotiations had reassured. In October, only a slight decline was recorded on the 2nd of the month, and the barrel is stagnating around 100 dollars, despite Donald Trump's promise of lower prices as soon as the Iranian threat to the strait is lifted.

According to Adi Imsirovic, a hydrocarbon trade specialist affiliated with the University of Oxford, the lower the stocks, the more operators react to the slightest signal. Donald Trump's threats to cut US fuel and diesel exports have fed this nervousness, with Europeans fearing they will no longer have enough reserves to absorb an interruption. He notes that it remains just as difficult to place orders for barrels, even as exports are rising.

The Signals to Watch

Dag Harald Claes notes that traders, burned by the June precedent, are now more cautious and that it is still too early to consider the threat to Hormuz lifted. Agata Loskot-Strachota points out that traders are anticipating a further escalation, which is holding back any price easing. The return of Gulf oil could stabilize prices, she estimates, without being enough to bring them down significantly in the short term.

The lesson goes beyond the oil market alone: the resilience of critical infrastructure is not measured by the restoration of flows, but by the strength of the systems that guarantee them. As long as these rest on temporary escorts, exposed pipelines and depleted stocks, vulnerability will remain priced in.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.