From the Strait of Hormuz to the Pump

The energy outlook remains deteriorating due to tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude gained 10% in a month and butane 31.2%. In Martinique, the 12.5 kg gas cylinder rises to €29.48, nearly €4 more than in October. Paris released 10 million barrels of diesel from its strategic reserves starting October 7. Without this measure, Martinique diesel would have reached €2.36/L in November, instead of €2.24.

Road Freight, First Relay of the Shock

Freight transport passes through this cost increase with precision. The CNR professional diesel index reaches 290.96 in the second half of October, versus 285.24 in the first. It is a record for the biweekly series launched in March. The index has rebounded 31.9% from its June low (220.51) and exceeds the April peak (275.94) by 5.4%. The gap with the index for vehicles under 7.5 tonnes, which do not benefit from the partial fuel tax rebate, narrowed from 4.63 to 0.56 points. Since this rebate is fixed in euros per litre, it weighs proportionally less when prices rise. For hauliers, the shock hits cash flow directly, depending on whether contracts are indexed to the monthly or biweekly index.

Unequally Exposed Economies

The same shock does not produce the same effects everywhere. In October, energy prices rose 24.1% year-on-year in France, after 21.3% in September. In Germany, they slowed to 12.2%, after 14.9%. Harmonised inflation thus reaches 3.8% on the French side, versus 2.8% on the German side. The data does not allow attributing this gap to geopolitics alone, but it shows that sensitivity to energy prices differs sharply between two neighbouring economies.

Maritime Routes and Policy Responses

Maritime transport carries more than 80% of global merchandise trade by volume. Yet this trade grew only 0.5% in 2025, versus 2.2% in 2024, amid routes disrupted by geopolitical tensions. When a critical passage is interrupted, ships reroute, delays lengthen and costs rise.

Responses remain partial. Strategic stock releases move prices by a few cents per litre. The diesel agreement announced between Washington and Moscow would cover, according to one reviewed analysis, 300,000 tonnes — a volume deemed insufficient to lower US prices. It is also accused of weakening sanctions. In Ukraine, daily strikes on energy infrastructure are a reminder that energy security is also a military target.

What Can Be Concluded, and What Cannot

The chain is legible: regional tension, higher oil product costs, freight costs, inflation. The data provides neither volumes transiting through Hormuz nor a breakdown of national factors, and several figures remain provisional. It is therefore prudent to speak of confirmed geopolitical pressure on costs, without measuring its exact share. The next inflation releases, expected on November 11 and 13, will clarify the scale of the gap.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.