A War Windfall Clearly Visible in the Accounts

The third quarter of 2026 illustrates how a supply disruption turns into profits. Shell saw its profit double to $10.8 billion, while TotalEnergies reports $8.2 billion for the quarter. Both majors post their best quarterly performance since 2022, and organizations are already calling for a windfall tax.

Refining is the most spectacular. PBF Energy, which operates six U.S. refineries, generated $1.53 billion in net income, against $170 million a year earlier. Its gross margin reaches $34.56 per barrel, while it stayed in single digits a year before. The stock has gained more than 170% since January.

The Mechanism: Physical Shortage, Then Margins

The causal chain is simple. Disruptions to Gulf exports make crude and refined products scarce, prices and margins climb, and companies holding barrels or refining capacity cash in. Investors got the message: Carlos Slim sold more than $1.15 billion in U.S. oil stocks this year, including about $820 million in PBF, while keeping stakes worth roughly $1.4 billion.

The Gulf Is Normalizing

The same mechanism runs in reverse when flows return. Satellite images showed nine supertankers berthed at Saudi Gulf terminals, a capacity of about 18 million barrels, the highest loading level since hostilities began. At the same time, Middle East oil exports reportedly returned to pre-war levels. The closer supply gets to normal, the less the scarcity premium is justified, and the refining margins seen this quarter become hard to sustain.

A European Gas Market Still Unstable

Physical flow data into Germany confirms the volatility. At Emden, the Norwegian entry point reached 432 million kWh per day on October 23, then 127.7 million the next day. At Oberkappel, the Austrian exit fell from 134.3 to 32.7 million kWh per day. These gaps may reflect partial publications as much as a real pullback.

What the Data Does Not Say

Several limits stand out. The file contains no current crude or gas prices, so the erosion of the windfall is not quantified. Saudi loadings cover only one day, and nothing guarantees they will repeat. Finally, nothing directly links the observed gas flows to oil profits.

The reasonable conclusion is this: the conflict explains the quarter's record profits, and the first signs of returning Gulf exports indicate that this windfall could shrink. The pace of that normalization remains to be measured.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.