A Highly Unbalanced Flow Map

On 23 October 2026, physical entry at Emden EPT1, on the Norwegian Norpipe link, reached 432,030,973 kWh/d, or roughly 432 GWh/d. The eastern points, by contrast, show complete silence. Mallnow (PL-DE Yamal), VIP Waidhaus (CZ-DE) and Baumgarten TAG (SK-AT) recorded zero, both on entry and exit, on 23 and 24 October.

A Legacy of 2022

This configuration is consistent with the 2022 rupture. Russia at the time cut most pipeline gas to Europe after the invasion of Ukraine. Four years later, the Yamal and Waidhaus meters show no transit. The Norwegian point mechanically becomes the one that weighs most heavily in the observed data.

A Brutal Drop on 24 October

The following day, entry at Emden fell to 127,675,972 kWh/d, roughly 70% less in a single day. Other points declined by similar proportions. Exit at VIP Oberkappel (AT-DE) fell from 134.3 to 32.7 GWh/d, roughly -76%. Entry at Tarvisio (AT-IT) fell from 40.5 to 11.2 GWh/d, roughly -72%. Entry at Zevenaar (NL-DE) remains unavailable.

The uniformity of these declines calls for caution. It may reflect provisional data or maintenance operations, and the file does not allow a definitive conclusion.

A Context of Declining Demand

These flows fit into a market shaken by the war in Iran and by the absence of LNG from the Middle East. Global gas demand declined this year, with prices at their highest in four years. Europe and Asia relied more heavily on renewables and coal to generate electricity.

According to Ember, the share of gas in the global power mix declined for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. Wind and solar covered roughly 68% of the increase in electricity demand over five years. Lower demand mitigates the risk linked to the concentration of entries. It does not eliminate it.

The Exporters' Bet

The major LNG players are betting on a long-term rebound. Shell anticipates LNG demand close to 700 million tonnes per year in 2050, roughly 65% more than the 422 million tonnes in 2025. This projection is driven mainly by South and Southeast Asia. It says nothing about Europe's short-term supply security.

What Can Be Concluded

The data show a visible dependence on the Norwegian point at Emden and total inactivity of the eastern routes. The file contains only two days of readings, with no storage or LNG flows. It therefore does not allow a conclusion of supply fragility. The first step is to verify whether the 24 October decline is confirmed in subsequent readings.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.