A Flow Map Without Transit Routes

On 23 October, the Emden EPT1 entry point on the Norpipe link between Norway and Germany recorded 432,030,972.9 kWh/d. At VIP TTF-THE-H, between the Netherlands and Germany, entry reached 510,843,752 kWh/d against an exit of 97,928,411 kWh/d. Conversely, Mallnow (Yamal), VIP Waidhaus and Baumgarten TAG show zero on both entry and exit on 23 and 24 October. Eastern European transit routes therefore no longer contribute to the observed balance.

A Global LNG Market Under Strain

This concentration comes amid heightened competition for LNG. Since the start of the US-Iranian war in late February 2026, Gulf flows have been disrupted and prices have tripled in a year. India is a telling indicator: its October imports are expected to reach a record 2.8 million tonnes, up 18% year on year, with a west-coast marker at $32-33/MMBtu against $11 a year earlier. When a major Asian buyer absorbs cargoes at these levels, Europe — deprived of continental transit — depends more heavily on Norwegian pipeline gas and on its ability to compete for LNG.

Volatility That Raises Questions

The flows themselves are unstable. Between 23 and 24 October, entry at Emden falls from 432 to 127.7 million kWh/d, roughly -70%. Exit from VIP Oberkappel to Germany drops from 134.3 to 32.7 million kWh/d (about -76%), and entry at Tarvisio from 40.5 to 11.2 million kWh/d. A system this concentrated quickly transmits the slightest variation at a single entry point to the markets.

Prices That Tell of a Fragmented Europe

On 23 October, day-ahead electricity prices range from 23.07 EUR/MWh in Finland and 33.90 in Western Denmark to 124.90 in Czechia, 157.93 in Portugal and 227.27 in Switzerland — nearly a tenfold spread between the two extremes. These prices primarily reflect local generation mixes and interconnection constraints. They nonetheless illustrate a Europe where exposure to imported energy varies sharply from one country to another.

The Limits of Interpretation

Caution is warranted. The dataset covers only two days, and the 24 October drop may stem from maintenance, calendar effects or partial publication: entry at Zevenaar is notably not reported. No storage or European gas price data is available, and the prices cited concern electricity. The LNG figures relate to India, and their transposition to Europe remains an inference.

What Can Be Concluded

The data confirm a European gas system centred on the north-west, with no Eastern European transit over the period observed, at a time when global LNG is expensive and contested. They demonstrate neither shortage nor a lasting trend, but they pinpoint the point of fragility: dependence on a small number of entry points in a volatile market.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.