Eastern Routes at Zero

On October 23, the Emden EPT1 entry point on Norway's Norpipe corridor records 432 GWh per day. On the same date, Mallnow (Yamal, Poland-Germany), VIP Waidhaus (Czech Republic-Germany) and Baumgarten TAG (Slovakia-Austria) show zero on both entry and exit. The finding is identical on October 24. On these corridors, no molecule flows.

A Global Market Under Shock

This void occurs as the war in Iran has cut off access to Middle East LNG. Global gas demand retreats this year, with prices at their highest in four years. European gas would have hit 97 euros, a level unseen since 2022, against a backdrop of winter risks.

The Mechanism: Tight Supply, Competing Buyers

The causal chain is simple. Without eastern transit, Europe depends on the Norwegian pipeline and LNG cargoes. Yet these cargoes are contested with Asia, all the more so as Middle Eastern supply is missing. Prices rise, and economies substitute renewables and coal for gas. In Europe as in Asia, the share of gas in electricity generation declines.

The Dutch hub VIP TTF-THE-H illustrates this influx logic. On October 23, it receives 511 GWh per day and returns only 98 GWh to Germany. The balance stays in the Dutch system.

What the Data Do Not Say

Caution is warranted. The next day, Emden falls to 127.7 GWh per day, Oberkappel to 32.7 GWh against 134.3 GWh the day before, and Tarvisio to 11.2 GWh against 40.5 GWh. Nothing indicates whether this is a real decline, maintenance or partial publication. Zevenaar has no value on the 24th. The file contains neither a wholesale price series nor a storage level. The only price reference comes from a headline, with no unit detail. Finally, the inactivity of the eastern routes is not explained.

The short-term reading must also be put in perspective. Shell expects LNG demand to rise from 422 million tonnes in 2025 to nearly 700 million in 2050, roughly 65% more. According to Ember, 61 of the 124 economies generating electricity from gas have passed their peak, but they account for only about one-fifth of that output. The major consumers have therefore not all reached their summit.

A Vulnerability, Not a Demonstration

Two days of readings do not make a trend. Yet they describe a network where Norway supplies most of the observed pipeline gas and where the East is silent. In a market short of LNG, this dependence explains Europe's sensitivity to supply shocks. It is not enough to explain, on its own, the level of prices.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.