A Map of Flows That Is Tightening

On 30 October, the VIP TTF-THE-H interconnection point, on the Netherlands–Germany high-calorific gas axis, recorded 482.9 GWh/d in entry. Emden EPT1, terminal of the Norwegian Norpipe link, showed 402.5. Tarvisio, on the Austria–Italy axis, reached 144.4 GWh/d, and Zeebrugge, on the United Kingdom–Belgium interconnection, 72.6. These four points total roughly 1,102 GWh/d, and the Norwegian route alone accounts for nearly 37%. These percentages are a calculation on the monitored points, not a share of the total market.

The contrast with the eastern network is stark. Mallnow (Poland–Germany, Yamal), VIP Waidhaus (Czechia–Germany) and Baumgarten TAG (Slovakia–Austria) show zero, in entry as in exit, on 30 and 31 October. The file does not explain these nil flows. The finding is nonetheless clear: Europe does not rely on these routes as a backup.

31 October: A Reading Not to Overinterpret

The previous day's figures do not carry over. Emden falls to 77.6 GWh/d and Oberkappel (Austria–Germany) drops from 112.5 GWh/d in exit on 30 to 22.6 on 31. Zevenaar (Netherlands–Germany) has no entry value available. At Tarvisio, the 144.4 GWh/d entry of 30 October becomes zero, with 17.2 GWh/d in exit. Such a brutal drop suggests a partially published day rather than a physical collapse, but the file does not allow a determination. No trend can be drawn from two days.

Europe, Residual Buyer in a Tight Global Market

The context explains why this fragility matters. Since the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran in March, global supply routes have been redrawn. In LPG, the Gulf countries' share of global exports has collapsed to 11%, while that of the United States has climbed to 65%. Asia has absorbed the bulk of these American volumes, up to 75% of its imports from April to October.

Consequence for Europe: in October, butane imports into the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp area fell to 130,000 tonnes, down 34% year on year. Europe received only 105,000 tonnes, roughly 7% of American shipments. Northwest European butane reached $1,125/t, its highest level in thirty years. LPG is not pipeline gas, but the mechanics are the same: when Asian demand sucks up flexible cargoes, Europe must fall back on its safest supplies.

Relief exists over the longer term. Sub-Saharan LNG exports are projected at 98 billion cubic metres in 2034, against 35.7 in 2024, a rise of nearly 175%. That timeline does not meet the needs of the coming winter.

Electricity Registers the Strain

Average October day-ahead prices continued to climb: €169.5/MWh in Germany (+16.6% month on month), €166.6 in Spain (+16.3%), €165.9 in France (+15.8%) and €230.7 in Italy (+11.3%). Sweden is the exception, at €75.7/MWh (+0.4%). On 30 October, the regional divergence was spectacular: €254.14/MWh in Switzerland, €250.85 in Czechia, €250.56 in Denmark-1 and €211.19 in Portugal, against €77.51 in Finland.

The proposed mechanism is as follows: in markets where gas-fired plants set the marginal price, a concentrated gas supply exposed to global competition weighs on the wholesale price. This reading is a working hypothesis; the file contains no gas prices allowing it to be verified, and it does not explain the advantage of the Nordic markets either.

What Nuances the Picture

Several elements prevent too hasty a conclusion. Oil is easing: Brent stood at $93.65 a barrel, after a drop of more than 8% in a single session, and the global market swung back into a surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day in October according to JPMorgan. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be close to pre-war levels, but at a higher cost. The oil channel is therefore normalizing faster than the electricity-gas channel, and the improvement remains contingent on maritime security in the region.

Add to this data gaps: no gas prices, no storage, no long series on flows, and a single two-day snapshot.

A Proportionate Conclusion

What the figures allow us to say: at the end of October, gas enters Northwestern Europe through a few dominant points, the monitored eastern routes are inactive, and wholesale electricity prices gained between 11 and 17% in one month across four major markets. What the data do not allow: establishing a measured causal link between these phenomena or announcing a winter shortage. The point to watch is the stability of the Norwegian route and the Dutch hubs, because the current balance rests on their continuity.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.