From a Weekend of Plenty to a Week of Tension

On Sunday, October 25, 2026, the megawatt-hour traded at an average of around 13 euros in Germany and 25.34 euros in France. By the 27th, the French average had already reached 161.53 euros. On Thursday the 29th, it climbed to 266.72 euros, while Germany neared 315 euros, with hourly peaks above 500 euros.

Gas Sets the Price When Renewables Falter

The mechanism is well known, but rarely this visible. A high-pressure zone settled over central Europe, with little wind and often overcast skies. German wind output could stay below 7 gigawatts on a daily average for several days. The system must then call on more dispatchable plants, particularly gas-fired ones.

Yet the wholesale price is set by the last plant needed to balance supply and demand. With European benchmark gas having breached 100 €/MWh intraday, every hour a gas plant is called pulls the price of all traded volumes upward. Weak wind and expensive gas reinforce each other.

A Surge That Crosses Borders

Interconnectors transmit tension from one market to another. France stayed below Germany, but the simultaneous surge confirms the markets are linked.

Day-ahead prices on October 23, before the peak, already showed wide dispersion: 23.07 €/MWh in Finland, 33.90 in Denmark (DK-1), 124.90 in the Czech Republic, 157.93 in Portugal and 227.27 in Switzerland. The gap between Finland and Switzerland reached nearly tenfold.

On the gas side, physical flows are equally variable. At Emden (Norpipe), entry rose from about 432.0 million kWh/d on October 23 to 127.7 million on the 24th. At VIP Oberkappel, exit flows to Germany fell from 134.3 to 32.7 million kWh/d over the same period.

What These Figures Do Not Say

Caution is warranted. These are wholesale prices, excluding taxes and network costs. They mainly affect dynamic tariffs and certain companies exposed to the market. Households on fixed or regulated tariffs follow other rules, with more delayed effects.

The French level is not explained by German wind alone either. It also depends on nuclear, hydro, domestic consumption and exchanges with other neighbours. The gas flows cited date from before the October 29 peak, and nothing establishes a direct link to the surge. Finally, the forecast of wind below 7 GW remains a projection, not measured output.

Flexibility as Insurance

The episode above all recalls the value of flexibility. Storage, demand management, available capacity and cross-border exchanges limit reliance on the most costly means during peaks. They also make it easier to benefit from periods of abundant electricity, like that Sunday at 13 euros. As long as gas remains expensive, a few days of weak wind will suffice to remind us that European electricity prices still depend heavily on the weather.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.