A $110 Barrel, an Assumed Risk Premium

On October 22, 2026, the Brent futures contract gained $1.29 to $110.11, while WTI rose 97 cents to $98.12. The spread between the two benchmarks reached $11.99 per barrel. That level is not primarily the result of a physical shortage: it reflects concern over the routing of crude.

Why Prices Are Holding

Fresh attacks attributed to the Houthis against Saudi targets led Washington to withdraw diplomats and relatives of its missions in Saudi Arabia. On the Gulf's maritime routes, a breakdown or a rise in insurance costs is enough to weigh on cargo costs, even without an immediate drop in global production. Add to that a drawdown of about 3.06 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks over the week, a sign of a tighter market in the short term.

Majors Cash In on the Tension

The causal chain is direct. High crude prices inflate upstream revenues. Refining margins, at a record at Shell, amplify the effect, and expensive LNG does the same. Shell nearly doubled its quarterly profit year on year and launched a $5 billion share buyback. TotalEnergies saw its third-quarter profit more than double, and its fourth-quarter scenario assumes oil above $100 per barrel and LNG above $14 per MMBtu. Repsol reports a sharp rise in profits, and Technip Energies' order book, at $27.3 billion, approaches its record.

What This Pattern Does Not Say

Several factors call for caution. First, the rise in crude does not mechanically pass through to pump prices: the euro-dollar rate, distribution margins and taxes also weigh in. Second, the winners are not all winning in the same way: INPEX generates profits despite a decline in production, and the UK sector worries about a budget that, according to OEUK, missed the chance to revive North Sea investment. At Aker Solutions, hundreds of additional jobs are at risk.

The available gas flow indicators also fail to settle the question. Entries at Emden EPT1 fell from 432,030,972.9 kWh/d on October 23 to 127,675,971.9 kWh/d on October 24, but several series, such as the Zevenaar entry, are empty. It would be risky to draw a conclusion on the profitability of the groups. Finally, the prices cited date from October 22 and the results from the 29th: the comparison remains qualitative.

A Windfall Conditional on Geopolitics

The available facts support a measured conclusion: as long as the risk in the Persian Gulf persists, high prices fuel exceptional results. A diplomatic easing would reduce the risk premium, while a confirmed disruption of physical flows could reignite volatility. The next indicators to watch are military and maritime developments, U.S. stocks and the supply outlook from major producers.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.