A Supply Shock That Is Regaining the Upper Hand

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global LNG and crude oil transits, was closed by Iran in retaliation. European gas broke through 100 euros per megawatt-hour for the first time in four years, after a gain of roughly 40% in October. Importers enter the winter with costs far above those of recent years, feeding the risk of inflation and budgetary strain.

Winning Producers, Hedged Investors

Producers are capturing the upside. Saudi Aramco posted adjusted net profit of $31 billion in the third quarter, up 9%, even though its facilities were targeted: higher prices absorb the damage.

On the safe-haven side, central banks bought 321 tonnes of gold over the quarter, the fastest pace since late 2024. Gold-backed ETFs reached a record 4,256 tonnes, with $31 billion in inflows. Consumer demand, by contrast, is falling: -17% for jewellery and -19% for bars and coins. That divergence signals the move is driven by financial and institutional hedging, not public enthusiasm.

Sentiment That Reflects Caution

The brief's indicators point the same way. The CNN Fear & Greed index stood at 26.61 on October 20, after 26.02 the day before. The euro-area ten-year AAA yield came in at 3.469% on October 19, with a curve Beta0 parameter of 1.7267. In Brazil, the dollar closed at 5.4871 reais (+0.79%), its highest since December 30, 2025, amid concerns over economic policy.

What Nuances the Reading

The picture is not uniformly bleak. AMD raised its fourth-quarter revenue forecast to $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.37% to 7,568.95 points on November 3. Enthusiasm for AI thus remains a powerful counterweight.

On gold, Capital Economics expects $3,600 per ounce by end-2027, a reminder that institutional buying does not guarantee gains. Finally, Europe is structurally reducing its gas dependence: 54.1% of its electricity was renewable in the second quarter of 2026, and its gas consumption fell 17% in 2025 compared with 2020.

Two limitations stand out. The sentiment indicators date from October 19 and 20, before the events of November 3. Extraction of the OECD CLI series and detailed macro indicators did not succeed, so the cycle diagnosis remains incomplete.

A Proportionate Conclusion

Expensive energy, gold hedging and investor caution add up to a real geopolitical risk premium. It coexists with AI momentum without overturning it. As long as the strait remains closed, the price of energy will arbitrate between these two forces.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.