Hormuz: The Origin Point of a Chain Shock

Since late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, a consequence of the conflict between the United States and Iran. Between March and October, Europe was thus deprived of more than 60 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The crisis, following the 2022 Ukraine-related one, once again tested the resilience of the global energy system. It illustrates a simple principle: geopolitical tensions weigh first on energy flows, then propagate throughout the entire economy.

European Stocks Depleted at Winter's Onset

The European Union enters the cold season with reservoirs 75% full, below the 80% safety threshold and at the lowest level since 2013. According to the International Energy Agency, the volume injected this year is 4% behind the five-year average. Global LNG supply has declined by 3%, or nearly 20 billion cubic meters. Add to this a timing choice: European importers delayed their purchases, betting on a price decline that did not materialize.

National situations differ. German tanks, the largest on the continent, started November at 61.03%, well below the European average of 74.62%. Berlin nevertheless maintains that supply remains secure.

Why Low Storage Is Costly

When reserves are low, suppliers buy more on the spot market, where prices fluctuate daily. Europe competes there with Asia and South America, whose limited storage capacity intensifies the race for flexible cargoes. European gas surged 30% in October before slightly retreating. The CEO of TotalEnergies sums up the stakes: the idea of a shortage is erroneous, but Europeans will have to pay more to guarantee their supply.

From Molecule to Bill

Energy accounts for about 8% of the European household consumption basket. According to standard models cited in the report, a 20% rise in gas would add 0.4 to 0.6 points of inflation and increase the annual bill by 200 to 400 euros for a gas-heated household. For the winter, the IEA outlines a central scenario of prices 10 to 15% higher than the previous winter, and a pessimistic scenario of +30 to 40% in the event of a severe winter or a new crisis.

In France, this shock hits already weakened budgets. According to the barometer of the Médiateur national de l'énergie, 34% of French people have struggled to pay their bills, compared with 18% in 2020. Twelve million households are in energy poverty and 75% have reduced their heating. The Commission de régulation de l'énergie raised the reference gas price by 7.4% on July 1, linked in particular to tensions in the Middle East. The Médiateur anticipates increases at least until the start of next year. When heating absorbs the effort, households cut other spending: 39% say they have given up essential expenses to pay for their housing.

Factories: The Second Front

European industry consumes nearly 40% of imported gas. In chemicals, metallurgy or ceramics, gas can represent up to 30% of costs, and a 15% price increase erodes margins by 4 to 5 points.

Logistical strain signals point in the same direction. Stellantis halted lines in Italy for lack of control units, and more than 8,000 employees at its Sochaux, Rennes, Poissy and Mulhouse sites were placed on short-time work for lack of batteries. Airbus is slowing production of its A321 and A330 due to supplier failures. Alstom was punished on the stock market for its delivery delays. Manufacturers, seeking to secure their purchases, pay more to be served first, which fuels inflation. Caution is warranted, however: the link to energy markets is asserted in general terms, and AI data center demand for chips also plays a distinct role.

A Wider Map of Tensions

Other flashpoints appear in the report, with no quantified effect on flows. Pakistan declared a state of emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, bordering Afghanistan, citing failure against Islamist militancy. In Ukraine, a false nuclear alert was broadcast on November 1 via the official civil security application, a few hours after the end of a local six-day ceasefire in Kherson. These episodes confirm the instability of the context but do not permit any conclusion on trade or energy.

Supply Security Redraws Strategies

TotalEnergies' annual report shows that the crisis is accelerating certain shifts. Since the second quarter of 2026, electric vehicle sales have been rising in Asia, Latin America and Europe. The group places peak global oil demand between 2035 and 2040. Low-carbon investments rose from $1.2 trillion in 2015 to $2.1 trillion in 2025. Trajectories are fragmenting: China accounts for about 60% of new solar installations and electric vehicle sales, the United States remains the world's leading LNG exporter, and Europe must arbitrate between climate ambition, competitiveness and grid costs.

What the Data Does Not Say

Several caveats are in order. The inflation and bill figures are model sensitivities, not observed measurements, and the report provides no gas or oil price levels. The risk described is primarily a price risk, not a physical disruption. Finally, the report contains only headlines, without data, on several sensitive issues such as the diesel agreement between Washington and Moscow or incidents in the Gulf of Oman. They therefore cannot be assessed here.

Conclusion

The best-documented causal chain links the closure of Hormuz to Europe's gas fragility, then to prices, households and industry. Winter will tell whether the central scenario (+10 to 15%) holds or whether we shift toward one of a shock comparable to 2022. In all cases, energy security remains the best indicator of how geopolitical tensions translate into economic costs.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.