Inflation That Shows Up in Costs Rather Than Indices With the final quarter approaching, the available data contains no consolidated consumer price index. To assess the inflation trajectory, one must

Inflation That Shows Up in Costs Rather Than Indices

With the final quarter approaching, the available data contains no consolidated consumer price index. To assess the inflation trajectory, one must therefore look at its transmission channels: transport costs, scarcity of certain goods, public budget constraints, and market reaction. These signals converge on a single diagnosis. The pressures do not come from overheating demand but from cost-push inflation, more diffuse in nature, which compresses margins across entire sectors before reaching final prices.

This distinction matters for investors. Demand-driven inflation often supports nominal revenues. Cost-push inflation, by contrast, erodes the profitability of companies unable to pass on their higher expenses, justifying a downward revision of their valuation multiples.

Freight, the First Thermometer of Tensions

Land Surcharges Climb Sharply

The clearest signal comes from logistics. Danish carrier Maersk has raised its "Intermodal Fuel Fee" rates for the period from September 28 to October 12. In Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, trucking, barge transport, and BCO loaders now carry a 15% surcharge, up from 10% in the previous fortnight. For RCOs, the rate rises from 5% to 7.5%. In Poland, trucking jumps from 12% to 16% and RCOs from 6% to 8%.

In two weeks, the surcharge has thus risen by half on certain segments. These fees apply to land transport services billed on both imports and exports. The increase is not confined to Europe: Algerian importers are also seeing their supply costs rise, illustrating the international spread of the shock.

Cascading Effects on Margins

For retail, manufacturing, and consumer goods, such a shift in the fuel surcharge weighs directly on the cost of goods sold. Companies with strong pricing power will be able to pass it on; others will absorb the shock. This differential in resilience should guide sector allocation in the final quarter.

Used Cars, a Symptom of Constrained Supply

The used-vehicle market offers another indicator of scarcity-driven inflation. Across five major European markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Belgium), cumulative supply on listing platforms stood at 4.049 million units in mid-September, down 1.5% month-on-month. Used passenger cars declined 1.7%, to 3.81 million listings.

A contracting supply mechanically tends to support prices, at the expense of household purchasing power. For automakers, the picture remains ambivalent: tension in the used market may shift some demand toward new vehicles, where launches continue, as illustrated by the electric Peugeot e-208 GTi, which has moved from concept to production version. But households' ability to keep up remains the central unknown.

France's Budget Constraint, a Risk-Premium Factor

A Shared Assessment of Public Accounts

The inflation trajectory cannot be separated from that of debt. The OECD, the Cour des comptes, and then the mission bringing together Xavier Jaravel, Xavier Ragot, Jean-Luc Tavernier, and Natacha Valla have drawn a convergent and alarming assessment of France's public accounts. In parallel, the Conseil des prélèvements obligatoires analyzed the evolution of income tax revenues between 2017 and 2024.

This accumulation of diagnoses has a financial translation: it feeds the risk premium demanded on French assets. A constrained state has less room to cushion a price shock through support measures, shifting more of the burden onto businesses and households.

Savings at the Heart of the Campaign

The topic has entered the presidential debate. At the 10th Afer Savings Conference, seven candidates spoke on preserving the life insurance framework and on funded retirement. In a context of potential erosion in the real return on savings, the tax stability of these vehicles becomes a valuation issue for insurers and asset managers.

A CAC 40 Sliding Below 8,000 Points

The Paris equity market is pricing in these tensions. The CAC 40 continues its contraction and breaks through the symbolic 8,000-point threshold. This decline reflects a reassessment of earnings prospects in an environment where costs are rising faster than visibility on demand.

Not all sectors are equally exposed. Stocks dependent on logistics chains and discretionary consumer goods appear most vulnerable to rising surcharges. Insurers, for their part, are compounding uncertainties: a life insurance tax framework under debate and exposure to climate events, such as the Mediterranean episode that placed Gard and Hérault under red rain-flood alert on September 30, 2026.

Telecoms, a Sector in Recomposition

Against the trend, telecoms offer a consolidation narrative. In March 2026, state-owned Poste Italiane launched a mixed public offer to buy and exchange shares in TIM, the former Telecom Italia. The move has revived speculation in France about a tie-up between La Poste and Orange. Two trends are emerging: the return of the strategic state and a loosening of concentration rules in Brussels. For a capital-intensive sector, the prospect of consolidation can support valuations independently of the price cycle.

Employment and the Long Horizon: Demand's Shock Absorbers

The resilience of demand will also depend on the labor market. In the panel of economies tracked by available statistical series, unemployment among 15-24 year-olds ranged between 9.5% and 19.2% at the end of 2025, versus 8.3% and 17.9% at the end of 2023. For all workers aged 15 and over, rates ranged from 4.2% to 7.4% at the end of 2025, up from the 3.7% to 6.1% range observed at the end of 2023. A slight deterioration that limits employees' ability to secure raises that offset inflation.

Over the longer term, nominal GDP projections for 2030 serve as a reminder that global growth is shifting. Japan is expected at around ?,002 billion, Mexico at ?,549 billion, and Turkey at ?,934 billion, while Vietnam (? billion) and Thailand (? billion) confirm the rise of Southeast Asia. Nigeria (? billion), Morocco (? billion), and Kenya (? billion) complete this emerging landscape.

What to Watch

Three indicators will guide final-quarter allocation decisions: the evolution of logistics surcharges beyond October 12, the persistence of the used-car supply contraction, and the market's reaction to French budget decisions. As long as inflation remains cost-driven, sector selectivity will take precedence over broad market exposure.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.