An Entry Point That Weighs on the Entire Balance

On 23 October 2026, the Emden EPT1 point on the Norpipe link between Norway and Germany recorded an entry flow of 432 million kWh per day. The next day, only 127.7 million remained, roughly 70% less. Over the same period, the eastern route points all showed zero, both on entry and exit: Mallnow (Poland-Germany, Yamal axis), VIP Waidhaus (Czech Republic-Germany) and Baumgarten TAG (Slovakia-Austria).

Flow Concentration, Amplified Variations

The mechanism is simple. When the eastern corridors deliver nothing, the volume arriving in Germany depends on a reduced number of points, including Norwegian gas. Any variation at Emden therefore reverberates across the entire balance. The Austrian VIP Oberkappel point illustrates this effect downstream: its exit to Germany fell from 134.3 million kWh per day on 23 October to 32.7 million the next day, a level close to the 33.2 million recorded on 17 October. Further east, the Tarvisio entry (Austria-Italy) dropped from 40.5 to 11.2 million kWh per day.

A Global Context Pushing Toward Diversification

This fragility fits into a global market upended by the Gulf crisis. Closures around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Qatari supply, and US LNG shipments to Asia more than doubled (+108%) in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Buyers are seeking cargoes outside the Middle East, and investment is following. LNG Canada approved its Phase 2, which will raise capacity to 28 million tonnes per year. ST LNG targets an investment decision in mid-to-late 2027 for a Texas project worth $8.2 billion and 8.4 million tonnes per year. Its chief executive sums up the logic: war pushes everyone to diversify suppliers, and the United States looks more stable. The United States already has more than 100 million tonnes per year of capacity, with nearly as much under construction.

What the Figures Do Not Say

Caution is warranted. The file does not specify why Emden flows fell: maintenance, nominations or commercial arbitrage remain possible. These are daily snapshots, not a trend. The Zevenaar entry is not available. No data on stocks, gas prices or LNG arrivals in Europe allows a direct measurement of competition with Asia.

A Structural Vulnerability, Not Proof of Crisis

It is reasonable to retain that German supply depends heavily on the Norwegian axis, that the eastern route is inactive and that this concentration amplifies the jolts of a single point. The global push toward new LNG capacity points to diversification, but its effects on European flows remain to be demonstrated.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.