A Norwegian Base, Zero Transit Routes

Data from October 30 maps a highly concentrated gas landscape. At Emden, the entry point for the Norpipe link from Norway, inflows reach 402.5 million kWh per day, with zero outflows. At the TTF-THE virtual point between the Netherlands and Germany, inflows peak at 482.9 million kWh/d, against 180.8 million in outflows. Conversely, Mallnow (Poland-Germany), Waidhaus (Czech Republic-Germany) and Baumgarten TAG (Slovakia-Austria) show zero, both inbound and outbound, on October 30 and 31.

Hormuz, A Source of Tension for LNG

This narrow base sits within a maritime crisis now eight months old. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and attacks are multiplying. On Friday, the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda, loaded with gas for Pakistan, was hit about 40 nautical miles south of Laval Island, hours after receiving a transit authorization. Brent traded at $111.43 on Monday, after a 1.8% decline, but up nearly 15% over October.

The logic is clear: when the Gulf route becomes risky, freight and insurance costs soar and reliable LNG volumes grow scarce. Europe then turns to its safest sources, concentrating pressure on a handful of entry points. This mechanism remains an inference: the file does not quantify Qatari volumes.

The Paradox of Russian LNG

Russian pipelines are halted at these transit points, but Russian LNG is advancing. Between January and September, EU ports received 12.18 million tonnes of Russian LNG, up 9.5% year-on-year, for an estimated bill of $8.79 billion. Blocking pipeline routes has not eliminated dependence, it has shifted it to maritime transport, even as a European ban is announced.

Electricity at Two Speeds

On October 30, the day-ahead price reached €250.85/MWh in the Czech Republic, €254.14 in Switzerland, €250.56 in Denmark-1 and €211.19 in Portugal, against €77.51 in Finland, less than a third of the Swiss level. This dispersion indicates that tension does not transmit uniformly, but the file does not allow its cause to be isolated.

Limits to Keep in Mind

October 31 values are far below those of the previous day (Emden: 77.6 million kWh/d inbound against 402.5 million), suggesting an incomplete day rather than a collapse. Zevenaar is not reported on the inbound side, and no gas price series is available in the file.

These data show a concentrated European gas market still tied to Russian LNG amid the Hormuz crisis. They do not, on their own, establish direct causality.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.