Contractual Supply Cut Back

QatarEnergy extended force majeure on its LNG deliveries to the end of the year, in effect since April 2026. Italian buyer Edison learned that three additional cargoes would not be delivered to the Adriatic LNG terminal. On the Dutch market, the TTF front-month settled at ?.51 (€97.53) per MWh, up 1.5% on the session. That is its highest level since the winter of 2022, the first winter without the bulk of Russian pipeline gas.

Direct Competition with Asia

The mechanism is a shift of demand toward the spot market. Deprived of contracted volumes, buyers must source on the spot market, and Europe meets Asia there. Pakistan plans to buy ten spot cargoes at twice the price of its Qatari contracts, for a bill exceeding ? billion. In Bangladesh, Petrobangla reports a "significant cost" to fill the deficit. LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz have not returned to normal. Asian spot prices hit a four-year high, and the TTF is following.

What Physical Flows Show

Readings from October 23 and 24 confirm a poorly diversified onshore supply. At Emden, on the Norpipe pipeline, entry reached 432.0 GWh/d on October 23, then 127.7 GWh/d the following day. The Mallnow (Yamal), VIP Waidhaus and Baumgarten TAG points show zero on both entry and exit. At Tarvisio, entry toward Italy fell from 40.5 to 11.2 GWh/d. At VIP Oberkappel, exit toward Germany dropped from 134.3 to 32.7 GWh/d. This landscape leaves little margin if LNG runs short.

A Tight Global Energy Context

The World Bank puts the rise in energy prices at 32% in 2026 and the expected decline in global oil supply at 5.2%. Brent traded at ?.61 a barrel on Wednesday. A market this tight amplifies every gas disruption.

Limits to Keep in Mind

Several factors call for caution. The October 24 data may be provisional: Zevenaar is marked "N/A," and a single day does not make a trend. The file contains neither storage levels nor demand data, which prevents measuring the real risk of shortage. Finally, the World Bank anticipates a 7% decline in commodity prices in 2027.

Exposure, Not Shortage

The conclusion is that Europe enters winter with fewer volumes secured by contract and greater exposure to spot prices. A physical deficit is not demonstrated, but the TTF level indicates the market is already pricing in that risk.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.