Brics, energy and reconfigurations: the fault lines of an accelerating multipolar world

Hook: The Brics summit in New Delhi concluded on September 13 without a common position on the war in Iran, revealing that a bloc expanded to more than ten members cannot transform its demographic and economic weight into strategic influence. Simultaneously, France is recording renewable production rates exceeding 57% in several regions, a threshold that reshapes internal energy balances and vulnerability to external shocks.

Key points

• Brics expansion imported regional rivalries: India, China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Emirates could not agree on a joint declaration concerning the US-Israeli conflict against Iran. Xi Jinping implicitly condemned Washington, but India, the summit host, maintained a balanced position to preserve its ties with the United States.

• French renewable production crosses structural thresholds: According to institutional data, Corsica reaches 57.23% of total renewable production, Centre-Val de Loire 59.38% in hydropower, Brittany 57.53% in solar, Grand Est 57.6% in renewable gas, and Pays de la Loire 57.8% in total renewable electricity. These levels, well above the 15% alert threshold, signal an advanced regional energy transition but also increased dependence on weather conditions.

• Latin America resists the American diplomatic offensive: Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, toured Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru to consolidate alliances with conservative governments. But the Chinese presence, described as « very present » by local officials, limits Washington's leverage. The overthrow of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela created a vacuum that neither the United States nor China fully controls.

• Internal political dynamics weaken executives: In Kenya, the rally of opposition senator Edwin Sifuna in Nairobi, under heavy police surveillance, reflects pre-election tension less than a year before the presidential election. In Germany, CDU officials publicly challenge Chancellor Merz's line after an electoral defeat, while in the United Kingdom, the European question remains inflammatory, as illustrated by the controversy over EU flags at the Last Night of the Proms.

• Systemic tipping points are multiplying: Recent scientific work maps the interaction between ecological, economic, and geopolitical tipping points, suggesting that localized shocks can propagate in cascades. This approach aligns with the analysis of state-dependent effects of geopolitical risk on global trade, which shows that redundancy in trade networks mitigates but does not cancel out shocks.

Context

The current configuration results from three decades of asymmetric globalization. The expansion of Brics in 2024 to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates aimed to counterbalance the Western order but introduced historical rivalries — between Iran and Saudi Arabia, between India and China, between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile. Simultaneously, the European energy transition, accelerated by the war in Ukraine, has produced contrasting regional effects: some French areas exceed 57% renewable, while others remain dependent on nuclear and fossil fuel imports. In Latin America, the failure of the Chavist model in Venezuela and the conservative push have reopened a space for influence that Washington is trying to fill, but where Beijing has structural advantages through investments and loans.

Key players

China seeks to transform Brics into a platform for challenging the Western order, but its implicit support for Iran and its proximity to Russia limit its ability to unite India and Brazil. India, the summit host, plays a balancing act: it wants to benefit from Brics without alienating the United States, with which it shares interests in the Indo-Pacific. The United States, via Marco Rubio, is trying to rebuild influence in Latin America, but its margin is constrained by China's economic presence and the aftermath of past interventionist policies. The European Union, fragmented on migration and energy issues, sees its divisions rekindled by Brexit, ten years after the referendum. African governments, from Kenya to Burkina Faso, navigate between social discontent, alternative development models — the Sino-Burkinabe colloquium on Chinese modernization is an example — and pressure from traditional donors.

Data and figures

Commodity prices on September 12, 2026, shed light on underlying tensions. Gold stands at 4,348.99 USD/oz, a historically high level reflecting demand for safe havens in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. Platinum (1,791.50 USD/oz) and palladium (1,297.20 USD/oz) remain supported by industrial needs and supply disruptions. Copper, at 0.4508 USD/oz, and aluminum, at 0.1009 USD/oz, reflect sluggish global demand, particularly from China. Henry Hub natural gas, at 2.81 USD/mmbtu, remains low, a sign of abundant supply in the United States despite geopolitical tensions. Aviation fuel (4.341 USD/gal) and gasoline (3.534 USD/gal) indicate still contained logistical costs.

In France, the renewable production thresholds exceeded in several regions — 57.23% in Corsica, 59.38% in Centre-Val de Loire for hydropower, 57.53% in Brittany for solar — suggest that the energy transition is producing differentiated territorial effects. These figures, well above the 15% alert threshold, raise the question of intermittency management and storage capacity.

Analysis of issues

In the short term (1-6 months), the fragmentation of Brics on Iran is expected to persist, limiting their ability to influence the conflict. India, in a balanced position, could benefit from its pivotal role to attract investments and technological partnerships. In Latin America, Marco Rubio's tour could produce bilateral agreements, but China's presence in infrastructure and energy makes any lasting shift unlikely. In Europe, the Brexit issue remains a factor of internal division in the United Kingdom, with repercussions on political cohesion and relations with the EU.

In the medium term (1-3 years), the French energy transition could reach critical thresholds in certain regions, with implications for supply security and prices. Increased reliance on renewable energies exposes territories to climatic hazards, as suggested by work on tipping points. Regions exceeding 57% renewable will need to invest massively in storage and interconnections to avoid disruptions.

The winners of this configuration are countries capable of diversifying their partnerships — India, Turkey, Emirates — and sectors related to energy security, critical metals, and defense. The losers are economies dependent on a single bloc or a single resource, as well as populations exposed to inflationary shocks and social tensions, as in Kenya or Gabon, where the Court of Auditors demands the same rigor against state debtors as against taxpayers.

Prospective hypotheses

Scenario 1: Accelerated fragmentation of Brics (probability 55%) — Divergences on Iran and Ukraine worsen, leading to a lasting paralysis of the bloc. Conditions: maintenance of Iranian and Russian positions, absence of effective Indian mediation. Indicators to monitor: Brics joint declarations, evolution of intra-bloc trade, position of Brazil and South Africa.

Scenario 2: Regional energy rebalancing in France (probability 70%) — Regions exceeding 57% renewable continue their trajectory, but bottlenecks appear in storage and networks. Conditions: sustained investments, favorable weather conditions, absence of major crisis. Indicators: renewable penetration rates, electricity prices, network incidents.

Scenario 3: Escalation in Latin America (probability 30%) — Sino-American rivalry escalates into open crises, particularly in Venezuela or Colombia. Conditions: failure of negotiations, border incidents, economic sanctions. Indicators: military movements, migratory flows, Chinese investments in the region.

Why it matters

These dynamics directly determine the cost of energy, supply security, and the stability of global supply chains. For businesses, the fragmentation of Brics and Latin American resistance mean opportunities in intermediate markets, but also risks of increased volatility. For citizens, the renewable thresholds exceeded in France announce tangible changes in energy bills and network reliability. The question is no longer whether the world is fragmenting, but how actors — states, businesses, communities — adapt to an environment where alliances are reversible and systemic shocks are more frequent. How is your organization preparing for these shifts?