The Strait of Hormuz under tension and the Iran-US war redraw the risk map

On July 23, 2026, an oil tanker caught fire and exploded south of the Strait of Hormuz, following an explosion on an allegedly mined road, according to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. In the aftermath, Tehran declared the strait “completely closed,” threatening global oil flows and triggering a shockwave in the markets.

Key Points

• Yemen’s Houthis claimed strikes against two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, marking the first such attack since the announcement of a maritime embargo against Riyadh.
• Iran demonstrated the precision of its missiles by killing three American soldiers at a base in Jordan, a sign that the conflict with Washington can inflict losses despite American technological superiority.
• US intelligence analysts are examining possible Russian assistance to Iranian drone strikes against CIA facilities in the Gulf, with no firm conclusion at this stage.
• In parallel, China faces an “economic blockade” of its Saindak copper mine in Pakistan, targeted by militants, threatening copper deliveries.
• The Ukrainian president met with US envoys to “re-energize diplomacy” with Moscow, while Lebanon seeks US support to disarm Hezbollah.

Context

The conflict between the United States and Iran has lasted for about four months, involving drone strikes, missile attacks, and now maritime sabotage. Yemen’s Houthis, allies of Tehran, have extended their attacks in the Red Sea against Saudi oil tankers, while Russia is suspected of providing technical assistance to Iranian strikes. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is entering a phase of diplomatic re-energization, and China is facing militant blockades on its investments in Pakistan. This convergence of regional crises fuels global energy insecurity.

Key Players

Iran and its regional allies – Houthis, Hezbollah – seek to compel Washington to lift sanctions and withdraw from the Middle East. Their means of action include ballistic missiles, precision drones, maritime blockade, and activation of proxies. Their constraints: a suffocated economy and dependence on oil exports.
The United States and its partners, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, want to contain Iranian expansion and secure maritime routes. They possess superior naval and air forces but face a public opinion sensitive to human losses.
China, engaged in the China-Pakistan economic corridor, must protect its mining assets and supply chains from militants. Russia plays an ambiguous role, possibly militarily supporting Iran while negotiating on Ukraine.

Data and Figures

Gold reached $4,603 per ounce on August 22, a historic high reflecting demand for a safe haven. Oil closed at its highest level since June 11, according to institutional data. Henry Hub natural gas stood at $2.82 per million BTU, aviation fuel at $3.96 per gallon. These figures are to be compared with renewable energy production: available public indicators show that some French regions displayed renewable electricity production rates exceeding 50% at the end of August, such as 52.83% in Hauts-de-France or 52.41% in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur for hydropower. This rise in renewables offers a relative buffer against hydrocarbon volatility.

Analysis of Stakes

In the short term (1-6 months), the major risk is a prolonged disruption of maritime transport. Insurance premiums for vessels transiting through Hormuz and the Red Sea will increase, raising the cost of freight and raw materials. Energy-importing countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be most affected, as highlighted by recent academic work on geopolitical energy shocks. In the medium term (1-3 years), a recomposition of security alliances could accelerate energy diversification and investments in renewables, but also further militarize trade routes. The immediate losers are economies dependent on imported oil, while gold producers and defense industries could benefit from this instability.
This interpretation is, however, contested: some analysts believe that the announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz is more a posture than a real capacity to sustainably block traffic, as Iran itself depends on its oil exports to finance its economy. Furthermore, data on drone attacks against CIA facilities are still fragmentary, and the Russian role remains an unconfirmed investigative hypothesis.

Prospective Hypotheses

Scenario 1 – Controlled escalation (estimated probability: 50%): Discreet diplomatic channels are maintained, no complete blockade of Hormuz materializes, and Houthi attacks remain sporadic. Indicators: resumption of indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, decrease in the number of incidents in the Red Sea, stabilization of oil prices below recent highs.
Scenario 2 – Prolonged strait closure (probability: 25%): A major incident leads to an effective blockade lasting several days to several weeks, causing an oil price surge and a global recession. Indicators: massive rerouting of tankers via the Cape of Good Hope, explosion of insurance premiums, energy rationing in some countries.
Scenario 3 – Rapid regional de-escalation (probability: 25%): A ceasefire is negotiated between the United States and Iran, the Houthis suspend their attacks, and progress is made in Ukraine. Indicators: announcement of a ceasefire, partial lifting of sanctions, return of unescorted commercial vessels.

Why it’s important

For European citizens, the surge in fuel and maritime freight prices will translate into imported inflation and pressure on purchasing power. The question is no longer whether an energy shock will occur, but what its duration will be and how states will cushion the shockwave. The ability to accelerate the energy transition and secure supply chains becomes a strategic priority, not just an environmental one.