The world order under tension: wars, sanctions, and new maritime routes

On July 31, 2026, a disarmament agreement for Hamas in Gaza was announced, while airstrikes attributed to the Russian Africa Corps in Mali killed civilians. These two events, occurring within hours of each other, illustrate the violent fragmentation of contemporary conflicts.

Key Points

• Arctic maritime routes are expanding with new players like NewNew Shipping Line, signaling a recomposition of global supply chains.
• Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz maintain pressure on oil freight rates and maritime security, despite a recent drop in crude prices.
• A former US leader plans to increase economic pressure on Iran, as gold prices reach record highs (over $4,600 an ounce).
• Weak signals indicate a potential revision of the International Maritime Organization's "Net-Zero" framework, which could alter decarbonation strategies.
• New Caledonia sees its government presidency fall to a centrist party, a development to watch for Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

Context

Since the end of the Cold War, the unipolar world order has eroded in favor of a competitive multipolar system. The war in Ukraine, repeated crises in the Middle East, the expansion of BRICS, and Sino-American rivalry have accelerated this shift. Old alliances are being tested, while new actors – private companies, regional organizations, middle powers – gain influence.

Key Players

The United States, under an unpredictable presidency, oscillates between disengagement and maximum pressure. The former president announced an agreement on Hamas disarmament in Gaza but expressed reservations about Patriot missile production in Ukraine, revealing strategic hesitations. Russia extends its influence in Africa via the Africa Corps, but at the cost of increasing human losses, including among foreigners from Uganda or Vietnam who came to fight in Ukraine. China advances its pawns in the Indo-Pacific and the Arctic, while Japan commemorates ten years of its "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy, adapting its regional approach.
Iran remains at the heart of tensions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime security and tanker freight rates are directly affected. International organizations like the IMO are pushed to revise their normative frameworks, under pressure from industrialists and states. Finally, the European Union seeks to redefine its instruments towards Latin America and the Caribbean in a multipolar context and the emergence of the global South.

Data and Figures

According to institutional data, an ounce of gold has crossed the $4,600 threshold, a historically high level, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets. Silver traded around $69 an ounce, platinum exceeded $1,870, while palladium remained near $1,344. Conversely, base metals like copper or aluminum showed relatively low prices, a sign of sluggish industrial demand.
Oil prices experienced a marked drop of 7 to 9.5% in the recent period, with WTI crude around $86 a barrel. This drop, combined with persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, creates an uncertain environment for offshore exploration-production investments. Tanker freight rates remain under pressure, reflecting the geopolitical risk premium.
Weak signals indicate an expansion of Arctic maritime routes, driven by players like NewNew Shipping Line, which could reduce transport distances between Asia and Europe. Simultaneously, investments in equipment manufacturing, such as control valves in India, suggest a strategy of localizing critical supply chains. In France, renewable hydraulic production experienced significant regional variations, with a drop of over 20% in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and a rise of 38% in Burgundy, illustrating the volatility of renewable energies.

Analysis of Issues

In the short term, the Gaza disarmament agreement remains fragile; any resumption of hostilities could revive refugee flows and energy shocks. Threats of increased economic pressure on Iran, if materialized, could lead to reprisals in the Strait of Hormuz, with direct consequences on barrel prices and maritime insurance. In the medium term, the opening of the Arctic and the revision of the IMO's "Net-Zero" framework will redraw trade routes and environmental standards. Winners will be shipowners capable of investing in ice-adapted vessels and alternative fuels, as well as countries with local industrial capacities. Losers could be economies dependent on hydrocarbon exports, facing both falling prices and the energy transition.
Caution is advised: available data comes from partial institutional sources, and recent events are still being consolidated. Certain interpretations, particularly regarding the actual impact of sanctions or the economic viability of the Arctic route, are contested. Weak signals can prove misleading, and rapid reversals are possible.

Prospective Hypotheses

1. Controlled escalation in the Middle East – Probability: 40%. Condition: continued pressure on Iran and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. Indicators: oil prices exceeding $95 a barrel, rising maritime insurance premiums, statements from the Revolutionary Guard.
2. Consolidation of alternative corridors – Probability: 35%. Condition: continued investment in the Arctic and India, adoption of favorable international rules. Indicators: number of Arctic transits, orders for icebreaker vessels, announced port investments.
3. Return to fragmented multilateralism – Probability: 25%. Condition: sectoral agreements between regional blocs (EU-Latin America, Indo-Pacific) without total rupture. Indicators: ratification of trade agreements, participation in summits, adoption of the IMO framework.

Why it matters

For citizens and businesses, these dynamics mean more volatile energy prices, longer but also more diversified supply chains, and increased security risks in certain regions. Insurers, logisticians, and industrialists must integrate geopolitics into their strategic decisions. The question is not whether the world is fragmenting, but at what speed and along what fault lines.