Energy Transition: The Paradox of Simultaneous Growth in Fossils and Renewables

The analysis of recent signals in the energy sector reveals a paradoxical dynamic, at the heart of the global ecological transition. While efforts are multiplying to develop decarbonized sectors, major players in the energy sector continue to invest massively in hydrocarbon exploitation. This situation suggests that the current transition is more akin to an addition of energy sources than a pure and simple substitution, a concept highlighted by scientific research that questions the capacity of renewables to replace fossil fuels rather than simply complementing them .

Part 1: The Strategic Persistence of Fossil Fuels

Major energy companies, or 'majors', are actively pursuing the development of their fossil fuel portfolios, indicating a long-term vision where hydrocarbons retain a central place. TotalEnergies perfectly illustrates this trend through several strategic operations. Firstly, the French company benefits from an exemption from European Union sanctions, allowing it to continue marketing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its Yamal project in Siberia . This derogation underscores the persistent dependence of certain markets on Russian gas and the ability of large groups to navigate complex geopolitical contexts to maintain their commercial flows. Secondly, TotalEnergies, alongside other majors like ExxonMobil, is reinvesting in deep offshore exploitation in Nigeria . Although the details of these investments are not available in the consulted sources, the signal of renewed interest in this hydrocarbon-rich region is clear. Thirdly, an agreement has been concluded between TotalEnergies and the Italian company Eni for the development of the Cronos gas field in Cyprus . This new exploration and production initiative in the Eastern Mediterranean confirms the desire to secure new gas supply sources for decades to come. These combined actions demonstrate that, far from disengaging from fossil fuels, the sector's historical players are consolidating and expanding their positions, betting on sustained demand for oil and gas.

Part 2: Structuring Decarbonized Energy Sectors

In parallel with the fossil fuel dynamic, the low-carbon energy sector is also experiencing strategic movements aimed at strengthening its competitiveness and preparing for the future. These efforts are evident both industrially and in research and development.

Industrially, Europe seeks to consolidate its strengths. European wind turbine manufacturers are considering merger operations to create industrial champions . The objective is to strengthen their position against increasingly strong Chinese competition in the global wind energy market . This consolidation approach is potentially facilitated by recently updated European directives, signaling political support for structuring a sovereign and competitive European sector . In another area of decarbonized energy, Italy is showing renewed interest in nuclear power. An initiative has been launched by companies RINA and Ansaldo Energia to strengthen the country's nuclear supply chain . The project aims to integrate companies from non-nuclear sectors but possessing transferable industrial skills, by providing them with support to obtain the necessary certifications and qualifications . This proactive approach suggests an anticipation of a nuclear sector revival in Italy, by preparing the industrial fabric upstream.

On the scientific research front, work focuses on evaluating and optimizing new energy technologies. Studies are conducting life cycle analyses of renewable hydrogen and bioenergy sectors to assess their real environmental performance compared to conventional electricity production . Other research focuses on the role of solar technologies and bioenergy in achieving Sustainable Development Goal No. 7 (Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all) within the framework of decarbonized energy systems . Innovation also extends to integrated and more efficient production systems. An example is the development of a new multigeneration system combining geothermal energy and parabolic trough solar collectors for sustainable energy supply . These complex systems aim to optimize resources and simultaneously produce several types of energy or services, as shown by research on multigeneration systems for sustainable water production via advanced desalination techniques .

Summary: An Energy Transition in the Form of Addition

The juxtaposition of these signals paints a picture of a multi-speed energy transition, where old and new energy sources coexist and develop in parallel. The concept of "energy addiction" where renewables are added to the global energy mix without replacing fossil fuels seems particularly relevant to describe the current situation . The continuous investments by majors in large-scale gas and oil projects ensure the longevity of hydrocarbon supply. Simultaneously, consolidation maneuvers in European wind power and the preparation of Italy's nuclear supply chain are defensive and strategic moves aimed at securing the place of decarbonized energies in the future energy mix. Academic research, meanwhile, explores future technological avenues , but implicitly highlights the complexity and time required for these solutions to reach industrial and economic maturity allowing for large-scale substitution. In the current state of available information, the global energy transition appears less as a radical shift than as a diversification and expansion of the global energy system, the implications of which for achieving climate goals remain a central question. Many other aspects, such as the development of electricity self-consumption , solar power in Normandy or Taiwan , or the impact of heatwaves on energy supply , could not be analyzed due to lack of content in the provided sources.