The energy transition put to the test by geopolitical and industrial realities

On September 9, 2026, French solar production reached historic thresholds, with increases exceeding 380% in certain regions like Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Pays de la Loire. At the same time, Brent crude oil was trading at 96 dollars a barrel, a reminder of the persistence of fossil fuel dependence. These two seemingly contradictory signals illustrate the complexity of an energy transition that does not follow a linear trajectory.

Key Points

China, a double-faced actor in Africa: Beijing presents itself as a champion of renewable energies on the continent, but its massive investments in fossil fuels contradict this discourse. This ambivalent strategy, combined with a growing presence in infrastructure, creates a dependence that could hinder Africa's transition.

Russia redraws its energy map via the Arctic: Faced with the European ban on its LNG deliveries scheduled for January 2027, Moscow is accelerating the development of the Northern Sea Route. This route, which could become a major axis of Eurasian energy trade, disrupts logistical and security balances.

Critical minerals do not all go to the transition: A significant portion of the demand for metals like copper or lithium comes from construction and defense, challenging the idea that mining is solely driven by transition needs. This reality complicates supply strategies.

German industry underutilizes its electrical flexibility: Only a third of industrial companies actively evaluate opportunities to adapt their consumption to wind and solar offers. This inertia hinders the integration of renewables in a country that nevertheless aims to be a leader in the transition.

Heavy transport, a new battlefield for decarbonization: Between hydrogen, electrification, and biofuels, European players are positioning themselves. Germany is structuring a hydrogen ecosystem with giants like Daimler Truck and Volvo, while France is developing charging networks for electric heavy goods vehicles.

Context

Energy transition, accelerated by the 2015 Paris Agreement and successive oil shocks, has long been conceived as a homogeneous movement towards renewables. But the war in Ukraine revealed the persistence of fossil fuel dependencies, and recent crises have shown that each region pursues its own interests. Europe, which has reduced its dependence on Russian gas, must now deal with new suppliers and alternative routes. Emerging countries, for their part, seek to reconcile economic development and climate imperatives, often with limited means.

Key Players

China: It dominates the supply chain for solar panels and batteries but continues to invest in coal and oil in Africa and Asia. Its objective is twofold: to secure its supplies and extend its influence.

Russia: Forced to reorient towards Asia, it is banking on the Arctic to circumvent sanctions. It possesses a unique fleet of nuclear icebreakers in the world, a decisive advantage.

The European Union: It tries to reconcile climate ambition and industrial competitiveness. The pressure from road transporters, via the IRU, illustrates the tensions between regulation and economic reality.

African countries: They are at a crossroads, attracted by Chinese investments but aware of the risks of dependence. Some, like Bangladesh with AfDB funding, are trying to electrify isolated areas.

Alliances are being reshaped: China is establishing itself as an indispensable partner in Africa, while Russia seeks outlets in Asia. Europe, for its part, is trying to build partnerships with countries like Norway to secure its gas and offshore wind supplies.

Data and Figures

Recent institutional data show marked volatility in raw material prices. Brent rose from 87.03 dollars on August 31 to 96.02 dollars on September 1, an increase of more than 10% in two days. WTI followed a similar trend, reaching 91.48 dollars. This surge is explained by geopolitical tensions and supply fears, while US stocks remain low. Henry Hub natural gas, stable at 2.90 dollars per mmbtu, contrasts with this trend, reflecting abundant supply in the North American market.

At the same time, gas flows in Europe show a contrasting picture: the Tarvisio entry point, on the Italian-Austrian border, recorded 28.36 GWh/day output, while the Oberkappel exit point saw 59.85 GWh/day transit. These figures, although partial, indicate sustained gas circulation towards Germany, which remains the main European consumer. Flows from Norway and Poland are zero, a sign that alternative infrastructures are not yet fully operational.

In France, renewable production alerts were triggered for spectacular increases: +385% in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, +382% in Pays de la Loire, +373% in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. These figures, which largely exceed the alert threshold of 15%, demonstrate a surge in solar power, but also the fragility of a network that must manage unpredictable production peaks.

Analysis of Challenges

In the short term, soaring oil prices penalize importing economies and could rekindle inflation. Emerging countries, already indebted, risk seeing their energy bills explode. In Europe, the rise in Brent is reflected in fuel prices, with gasoline at 3.44 dollars per gallon in the United States, which could weigh on consumption.

In the medium term, the energy transition faces structural obstacles. German industry, which struggles to adapt its consumption to renewables, illustrates the limits of the current model. Flexibility, crucial for integrating intermittent energies, remains underutilized. Furthermore, the rush for critical minerals, often justified by the transition, is actually driven by other sectors, which could create unexpected shortages.

The winners of this recomposition are the countries that control resources and technologies: China for renewables, Russia for gas, and the United States for oil. The losers are the most vulnerable countries, such as Nepal, which awaits a disbursement of climate funds to cope with devastating floods, an aid system that is still underfunded and little tested.

Prospective Hypotheses

Scenario 1: Continued energy fragmentation (probability 45%) - If geopolitical tensions persist, each bloc could strengthen its autonomy: Europe accelerates on renewables and American LNG, Russia turns to Asia, and China consolidates its grip on critical metals. To watch: gas flows via the Arctic and China's decisions on its fossil investments in Africa.

Scenario 2: Technological breakthrough (probability 20%) - Advances in energy storage or green hydrogen could disrupt balances. Germany, which is structuring a hydrogen ecosystem, could become a model. To watch: electrolyzer costs and hydrogen truck tests.

Scenario 3: Return to global cooperation (probability 35%) - If oil prices collapse or an ambitious climate agreement emerges, countries could cooperate more. Recent climate finance initiatives, such as that of Bangladesh, could be extended. To watch: climate negotiations and investments in cross-border networks.

Why it's important

The energy transition is not a smooth ride. Recent data show that fossil fuel prices remain volatile and renewables are not yet able to meet demand alone. For businesses, governments, and citizens, this means that energy decisions must be made with a clear vision of geopolitical risks and industrial realities. While France celebrates solar production records, the question remains: how to guarantee affordable and reliable energy for all, without sacrificing climate goals?