**Air exercises in Cairo, sanctions against Tehran: the world shifts into a fragmented order**

For the first time, Chinese J-16 fighters confronted French Rafale jets piloted by Egypt during an aerial exercise on African soil. This simulated confrontation, far from being anecdotal, reveals the new geometry of alliances: middle powers are testing competing equipment while Beijing and Washington clash by proxy.

Key Points

• China calls US sanctions targeting its companies «economic wars» and threatens to firmly defend its interests, in retaliation for the campaign to cut Iran off from international trade.
• The European Union proposes a revamp of its enlargement policy with prior internal reforms and gradual integration, presented as a «Helsinki moment» to break the deadlock.
• The Vatican dispatches its highest diplomat to Moscow to maintain a channel of dialogue, despite the Ukrainian conflict and growing tensions.
• Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé establishes himself as a mediator in Mali, securing the release of 82 Malian soldiers and two Wagner mercenaries held by separatist groups.
• Despite the energy crisis linked to the conflict in the Middle East, the German economy shows an upwardly revised growth of 0.3 % in the second quarter, driven by exports.

Context

The post-Cold War world order has given way to an unstable multipolar configuration. The war in Ukraine has fractured Europe, tensions between Beijing and Washington are redrawing trade routes, and the Middle East is once again a flashpoint with the US-Iranian confrontation. Available prospective analyses describe a world where traditional frameworks of thought are fading in favor of transactional logics. In this context, non-Western actors are actively seeking to expand their room for maneuver, as shown by Togolese mediation in Mali or the congratulatory messages received by the King of Morocco from Chinese, Saudi, and Swedish leaders, a sign of all-out diplomacy.

Recent work on the co-occurrence of climatic extremes, food price volatility, and conflicts in northern Nigeria highlights that the recomposition of alliances is also playing out in the field of food security and climate. Green hydrogen production in G7 countries also faces material constraints on electrolyzers, which could limit decarbonization ambitions and exacerbate competition for rare earths.

Key Players

Who are the players? The United States is pursuing a strategy of maximum pressure against Iran and technological decoupling with China, relying on extraterritorial sanctions. China, for its part, defends an alternative multilateral trade order and forges defense partnerships in Africa, as illustrated by the aerial exercises in Egypt. The European Union seeks both to preserve its strategic autonomy and to manage enlargement without destabilizing its institutions. Russia, engaged in Ukraine, is trying to maintain channels with the Vatican to avoid complete isolation. African powers, such as Togo or Morocco, use their geographical and diplomatic position to make themselves indispensable. Finally, Pakistan acts as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington, claiming significant progress in discussions on a possible de-escalation.

Data and Figures

Available public indicators confirm strong demand for safe-haven assets: gold trades at 4,603 dollars per ounce, a historic level, while silver reaches 68.97 dollars and platinum 1,877 dollars. Palladium remains high at 1,344 dollars, a sign of persistent tension on precious metals used in the automotive industry. Conversely, base metals remain more moderate: copper trades at 0.4575 dollars per ounce and zinc at 0.1187 dollars, suggesting still hesitant global industrial demand. On the energy front, Henry Hub natural gas remains at 2.82 dollars per million BTU, a contained level compared to 2022 peaks, but jet fuel at 3.96 dollars per gallon reflects logistical surcharges linked to Middle East tensions. Furthermore, regional energy data show that renewable production locally exceeds 38 % in Corsica and reaches 36 % in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, levels above the 15 % threshold, illustrating an energy transition that could reduce European vulnerability to oil shocks, but which remains conditioned by intermittency and critical metal supply chains.

However, caution is advised: raw material price data can be affected by exchange rate or carry-over effects, and the renewable penetration rates observed in France are not representative of the global average. Moreover, joint military exercises do not prejudge a lasting strategic alignment.

Analysis of Stakes

In the short term, the Iranian crisis constitutes the main risk. US sanctions against Chinese companies accentuate the fragmentation of value chains and could push Beijing to accelerate its alternative circuits, including in digital yuan. The port of Dubai, the first container port outside Asia, is already suffering its first setback with the war in the Middle East, which threatens trade flows between Asia and Europe. Germany, despite its export resilience, remains exposed to rising energy costs and sluggish Chinese demand. In the medium term, the reform of European enlargement, if successful, could redraw the boundaries of European influence in the Balkans and beyond. But this prospect is contested by those who see it as a dilution of existing solidarities. The multiplication of mediations – Togo, Pakistan, Vatican – also suggests a shift in conflict resolution towards non-Western actors, a signal of the erosion of Western diplomatic hegemony.

Prospective Hypotheses

Three scenarios are emerging.

• Controlled confrontation (probability: 50 %): Washington maintains pressure on Tehran and Beijing but avoids direct military escalation. Sanctions intensify, oil prices remain volatile, and military exercises like those between J-16 and Rafale multiply. Indicators to monitor: Brent price, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Sino-US trade flows, and frequency of joint maneuvers in Africa.
• Negotiated de-escalation (probability: 30 %): Pakistani and Vatican channels lead to a freeze in hostilities between Iran and the United States, and an appeasement in Ukraine. EU enlargement regains momentum, and African mediations consolidate ceasefires. Indicators: announcements of sanction lifting, prisoner releases, resumption of nuclear negotiations, adoption of a roadmap for new member accession.
• Competitive fragmentation (probability: 20 %): Middle powers increasingly play the non-alignment card. Africa becomes a theater of confrontation between Chinese, American, and European equipment and financing. Supply chains split into blocs, and gold retains its safe-haven status. Indicators: bilateral defense agreements, investments in port infrastructure, increased use of alternative currencies.

Why it's important

This shift directly concerns citizens: pump prices, delivery times, the security of semiconductor and critical metal supplies depend on these power dynamics. As gold reaches record highs and Chinese and French fighters cross paths in the Egyptian sky, the question is no longer whether the world order is changing, but how everyone will position themselves within it. States that manage to remain engaged in multiple forums without cutting themselves off from any partner could well be the big winners in this unstable balancing act.