A Modest but Structural Recovery

European Union electricity consumption rose 0.5% in 2025, after +1.9% in 2024. That pace remains far below the rate seen in the United States and China. Yet it marks a break after years of stagnation or decline. On weather-corrected data, Germany, Italy and Spain recorded higher demand across most months of the past year, while Portugal and the Nordic countries posted stronger growth.

The recovery comes despite a weakened industrial base and high energy costs. It therefore rests on new uses rather than on a rebound in manufacturing activity.

The Fuel Shock, an Accelerator of Electrification

The mechanism is first economic. With Brent at $108.96 and WTI at $101.79, fossil fuels weigh on budgets. Gas also soared in the wake of the war in Iran, and European gas crossed the €100 threshold for the first time since the 2022 crisis. In this context, electricity becomes the cheapest option.

Mobility provides the clearest proof. Battery electric car sales in Europe, including the UK, Switzerland and Norway, rose 52.2% in August year on year. In the second quarter of 2026, they surpassed petrol models for the first time over a full quarter. A vehicle charged at home costs 50% less to run than a combustion vehicle. Electric heating is advancing for the same reason. Finally, air conditioning equipped 23% of European households last year, and summer heatwaves are pushing more and more households to install it.

Data Centres, a Load That Is Here to Stay

Artificial intelligence adds to these uses. European data centre capacity should double to exceed 30 GW by 2032, then reach 39 GW in 2035. The UK (7.7 GW) and Germany (5.1 GW) would remain the largest markets. Spain and Finland would climb the rankings as still-early projects come online, while Ireland and the Netherlands, constrained, would drop out of the top five.

That last observation illuminates the central issue. Where access to electricity is limited, growth stops or moves elsewhere. The grid, more than demand, then sets the pace.

Grids Built for Another System

On the supply side, the shift is clear. In 2025, wind and solar together overtook fossil fuels in EU electricity generation, after a first point of parity in 2024. Yet this variable, decentralised output demands adapted infrastructure. According to the European Commission, 40% of distribution grids are more than 40 years old and cross-border transmission capacity must double by 2030. The investment required would reach $656 billion (€584 billion) by the end of the decade. Over the horizon to 2050, estimates range between €2,000 and €2,300 billion. Brussels has presented a legislative package on grids to speed up upgrades and renewable project permits.

What the 23 October Prices Say

That day's day-ahead prices illustrate the stakes. Switzerland showed €227.27 per megawatt-hour, Portugal €157.93 and the Czech Republic €124.90. Western Denmark (DK-1) fell to €33.90 and Finland to €23.07. The Swiss price is nearly ten times the Finnish price.

Such dispersion is consistent with a system in which abundant northern electricity, often renewable, fails to reach deficit areas. It also suggests that European market integration remains limited by interconnections. The inference is plausible, but it is not proven: the file contains neither congestion data nor cross-border electricity flows. An episode of low wind and low sunshine, flagged in the day's headlines, may also explain part of the gaps.

Gas, Still in the Background

Gas remains the marginal price on many markets and its physical flows are instructive. On 23 October, the VIP TTF-THE-H point, between the Netherlands and Germany, showed 510.8 million kWh per day in entry against 97.9 million in exit. The Emden point, on the Norpipe side, recorded 432.0 million kWh per day in entry. These values fall on 24 October, to 127.7 million at Emden and 32.7 million kWh per day in exit at Oberkappel, against 134.3 million the day before. This is very probably incomplete data for the most recent day, and it must not be read as a supply disruption.

Europe is also weakening its fuel supply security. About a quarter of its refineries have closed in two decades, cutting processing capacity by roughly 10%. The energy commissioner calls it an "alarm signal". This concerns oil, not electricity, but the diagnosis is the same: dependence on imports and ageing infrastructure.

Limits of the Analysis

Several caveats are in order. A 0.5% rise remains modest, and it slowed in 2025 compared with 2024. The file does not allow precise measurement of each demand driver: cars, heating, air conditioning or data centres. The prices are those of a single day, with no historical series. Finally, the link between price dispersion and grid constraints remains a working hypothesis.

A Proportionate Conclusion

The available facts sketch a turning point rather than an explosion. European electricity demand is emerging from stagnation, driven by fossil energy prices that make electrification rational and by the arrival of new loads such as data centres. The question is whether grids, which need hundreds of billions of euros by 2030, can keep up. Price gaps between neighbouring zones, from €23 to €227 per megawatt-hour, are the most visible signal, to be confirmed by congestion data.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence and verified by our editorial team.