BRICS 2026: In New Delhi, the Eurasian axis tests its cohesion under the pressure of Hormuz
The 18th BRICS summit opens in New Delhi against a backdrop of stalemate between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, as Washington restricts air protection for tankers in Hormuz. De-dollarization recedes in favor of cautious payment mechanisms, and India, the future third-largest economy in the world, plays a constrained mediating role.
Accroche : The 18th BRICS summit opens this September 12 in New Delhi, at Bharat Mandapam, with a minimal objective: to produce a joint declaration. Iran and the United Arab Emirates, both integrated into the expanded format, are at odds over the Gulf crisis, while Washington has just limited the air defense slots granted to tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has simultaneously mentioned a possible opening of this strategic passage — an ambiguous signal that weighs on every deliberation of the bloc.
Points clés
- Impasse sur la déclaration conjointe : The summit faces an unprecedented deadlock. Iran and the United Arab Emirates, members or partners of the expanded format, are at odds over the Persian Gulf crisis. New Delhi, as host, must reconcile irreconcilable positions on maritime security and the Iranian nuclear issue. Analysts anticipate an attempt by the bloc to push Tehran towards an energy agreement with Washington — a risky bet.
- La dé-dollarisation en retrait : Contrary to the aggressive declarations of previous years, the meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors did not mention a common currency or a binding alternative payment mechanism. The debate focuses on interoperable payment systems, settlement in local currency, and voluntary cooperation — not on a monetary rupture.
- Washington verrouille Hormuz : The United States is now limiting air defense time slots for tankers transiting the strait. This measure transforms the protection of maritime routes into a direct leverage point on Iranian exports and global freight costs.
- Rupture diplomatique Algérie-Émirats : Algiers has closed its airspace to all civil and military aircraft registered in the United Arab Emirates since September 11 at midnight, the day after the rupture of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Emirati commercial flights to or from Algiers, however, benefit from a provisional exemption until the end of 2026. This decision expands the theater of confrontation to the Maghreb.
- L'Inde, pivot économique et diplomatique : According to S&P Global Ratings projections, India is expected to become the world's third-largest economy by 2027, surpassing Japan and Germany. This trajectory strengthens its position as an indispensable mediator within the bloc, but also its vulnerability to energy disruptions.
Contexte
The construction of BRICS as an alternative to Western institutions dates back to 2009, with a first summit in Yekaterinburg. The expansion decided in 2023-2024 integrated Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and other partners, transforming a club of emerging powers into a heterogeneous coalition with divergent interests. The New Delhi summit comes after a sequence of major tensions: war in Iran, crisis in the Red Sea — where nearly 50,000 Yemeni civilians have fled the advance of the Houthis along the coast — and disruptions to energy supply chains. The simultaneous presence of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Gulf leaders makes this edition an unprecedented test of cohesion.
Acteurs clés
L'Inde plays a calculated double game. Host of the summit, it seeks to consolidate its status as a mediating power between Iran and the Emirates, while preserving its ties with Washington. Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin displayed their closeness during a bilateral meeting, but New Delhi refuses to align with Moscow regarding Ukraine.
La Russie uses the format to circumvent Western sanctions and maintain its influence on energy markets. Moscow pushes for alternative payment mechanisms but faces Indian and Brazilian caution.
La Chine seeks to stabilize its access to Gulf and African markets, while avoiding direct engagement in a conflict with the United States over the Iranian issue. Xi Jinping relies on the continuity of energy flows.
L'Iran uses its position within the bloc to try to loosen the grip of sanctions, but its regional isolation — particularly vis-à-vis the Emirates — limits its room for maneuver.
Les Émirats arabes unis defend their commercial and security interests in the Gulf, while using their membership in the expanded format to counter Iranian influence.
Données et chiffres
Raw material prices provide immediate insight into tensions. According to data available on September 12, gold trades at USD 4,348.99/oz, silver at USD 64.49/oz, and platinum at USD 1,791.50/oz — levels that reflect a demand for safe havens fueled by geopolitical uncertainty. Copper, a barometer of industrial activity, remains at USD 0.4508/oz, while zinc (USD 0.1199/oz) and nickel (USD 0.5127/oz) remain under pressure.
On the energy front, Henry Hub natural gas stands at USD 2.81/mmbtu on September 9, jet fuel at USD 4.341/gal, and regular gasoline at USD 3.534/gal. These levels, while remaining below 2022 peaks, incorporate a risk premium linked to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Market signals suggest an early bullish cycle for offshore equipment, with an 8/10 confidence according to available indicators, driven by a 17-19% increase in WTI and Brent crude prices.
Renewable energy production data in France show thresholds exceeded in several regions: 54.79% for bioenergies, 52.89% for renewable gas in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and 54.47% in Grand Est. These figures, while concerning a European market, illustrate the structural pressure on traditional energy models that BRICS seeks to preserve.
Analyse des enjeux
In the short term (1-6 months), the central question is the bloc's ability to produce a joint declaration. A failure would weaken the credibility of the expanded format and reinforce criticisms of its heterogeneity. Markets will particularly monitor signals on cross-border payments: if a concrete mechanism emerges, even a limited one, it could accelerate the fragmentation of the international financial system.
The Hormuz issue is the tipping point. US restrictions on air defense slots increase maritime insurance costs and could divert some traffic to alternative routes, raising global freight costs. The Iranian announcement of a possible reopening of the strait is an ambiguous signal: it can be read as a tactical concession or as a maneuver to divide the bloc's members.
In the medium term (1-3 years), India's economic trajectory — the world's third-largest economy by 2027 according to S&P Global Ratings, with an average annual growth projected at 6.4% between fiscal years 2024 and 2031 — reshapes the balances. New Delhi has increasing leverage to impose its conditions within BRICS but remains vulnerable to oil shocks. The closure of Algerian airspace to Emirati aircraft illustrates the multiplication of confrontation theaters, from the Maghreb to the Gulf.
The most exposed sectors are maritime transport, insurance, energy, and defense. The winners are energy producers outside conflict zones and financial centers capable of absorbing capital flows seeking security. The losers are economies dependent on energy imports and logistics operators exposed to straits.
Hypothèses prospectives
Scénario 1 — Statu quo fragmenté (probabilité : 55 %) : The summit concludes with a minimalist declaration, without binding commitment on de-dollarization or maritime security. Conditions: maintenance of Iranian and Emirati positions, absence of successful mediation by India. Indicators to monitor: final communiqué, number of bilateral meetings, tone of declarations on Hormuz.
Scénario 2 — Escalade régionale (probabilité : 30 %) : A major disruption of traffic in Hormuz or an attack on oil infrastructure triggers a price surge and an expanded military intervention. Conditions: failure of negotiations, maritime incident, breakdown of diplomatic channels. Indicators: maritime insurance premiums, container ship movements, US military declarations.
Scénario 3 — Percée institutionnelle limitée (probabilité : 15 %) : BRICS announces a pilot payment mechanism or an energy cooperation framework, without monetary rupture. Conditions: Iran-Emirati compromise, joint China-Russia-India pressure. Indicators: number of signatory countries, implementation timeline, reaction of bond markets.
Pourquoi c'est important
The decisions made in New Delhi directly determine the cost of fuel, transport, and energy for billions of consumers. An escalation in Hormuz would result in an immediate increase in pump prices and insurance premiums, while a weakening of BRICS would reduce counter-powers to the dollar's dominance. The question is not whether the bloc will survive, but whether it can transform its diversity into influence — or whether this diversity condemns it to immobility.
This analysis was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence, from institutional sources and verifiable open data. AI Transparency