**The World on the Brink: The Emergence of a New Multipolar Order Under Strain**

On September 1, 2026, an attempted coup in West Africa was reported as a critical risk to oil and gas, mining, and infrastructure operations, while Israeli strikes in Gaza killed at least five Palestinians. These events, occurring within a 24-hour interval, illustrate a global geopolitical fragmentation where local crises are intertwined with power rivalries. As the United States expands its sanctions against Iran and Tehran threatens retaliation, the world seems to be sliding towards a balance of terror, where each actor tries to redefine the rules of the game to its advantage.

Key Points

• Iran under maximum pressure : The Iranian regime, facing inflation exceeding 80% and shortages of basic necessities, is intensifying its internal repression. US sanctions, the naval blockade, and military strikes have severely degraded the economy, pushing Tehran to threaten retaliation. This fragile internal situation could further destabilize the region, already shaken by Israeli strikes in Gaza.

• The SCO as a counterbalance : The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, brought together leaders from countries representing 43% of the world's population and 23% of the global economy. The SCO condemned the strikes and sanctions against Iran, asserting its role as a counterbalance to Western hegemony. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized that connectivity projects must respect territorial sovereignty, an allusion to China's Belt and Road Initiative.

• Europe facing the Russian threat : The European Union announced the creation of a high-level group, composed of political and military leaders from member states, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine, to quickly address defense gaps. This initiative, led by Kaja Kallas, responds to the growing Russian threat, as the Trump administration intensifies its contacts with Moscow, as evidenced by the CIA director's visit to Moscow and the presence of the Russian Finance Minister at the G20.

• The temptation of American realpolitik : Donald Trump announced that he might review the United States' neutral stance on the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands, administered by the United Kingdom but claimed by Argentina. This decision, linked to insufficient British military spending, is part of a broader strategy of rapprochement with Russia and a redefinition of alliances, illustrated by the appointment of Alejandro Betancourt, a former Chavez ally, to lead a joint oil venture in Venezuela.

• Africa, a battleground for rivalries : Algeria is deploying military aircraft to Niamey, Niger, in the context of the fight against regional terrorism. Meanwhile, Ethiopia accuses Egypt of seeking to keep it landlocked by supporting internal conflicts, while Egypt launches a tender for 24 additional Rafale jets, bringing its potential fleet to 78 aircraft, thus strengthening its air power.

Context

These dynamics are part of a world undergoing profound change, where traditional frameworks of thought are fading, as analyzed by the Ramses 2027 publication. The war in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and rivalries in the Middle East have eroded trust in international institutions. The precedents of the Cold War, where powers clashed by proxy, are reappearing, but with new actors like the SCO and increased fragmentation. The attempted coup in West Africa recalls the successive coups in the Sahel since 2020, which have reshaped regional alliances.

Key Players

• United States : Under the Trump administration, they seek to reduce multilateral commitments, renegotiate alliances, and prioritize bilateral agreements. Their rapprochement with Russia and their openness to Venezuela indicate an assumed realpolitik, but they remain constrained by internal balances and traditional allies.

• Russia : Weakened by sanctions, it tries to break its isolation through channels like the G20 and contacts with the United States. Its alliance with China and its role in the SCO offer it alternatives, but its dependence on energy revenues makes it vulnerable.

• China : It consolidates its economic influence via the Belt and Road, but faces criticism regarding the sovereignty of partner countries. Its support for Iran and Russia within the SCO strengthens its role as a leader of the global South, while exposing it to tensions with the West.

• European Union : Divided on foreign policy, it tries to strengthen its common defense against Russia, while managing calls like Ireland's to ban trade with Israeli settlements. Its energy dependence and internal divergences limit its capacity for action.

• Regional Powers : Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Algeria, and Niger play key roles in their respective regions, seeking to maximize their influence while managing internal and external threats.

Data and Figures

According to institutional data, precious metal prices have reached record levels, with gold at 4,454.925 USD/ounce, platinum at 1,821.8 USD/ounce, and palladium at 1,419.453 USD/ounce. These figures, up 25% in one year, reflect the flight to safe-haven assets in a context of geopolitical uncertainty. Base metals, such as copper at 0.4555 USD/ounce and nickel at 0.5207 USD/ounce, show sustained demand, a sign of robust global industrial activity, but potential disruptions to supply chains in Africa and the Middle East could reverse this trend.

In the energy sector, Henry Hub natural gas is at 2.70 USD/mmbtu, a moderate level, but tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, could cause prices to soar. Data on renewable production in France show regional variations, with a 26% decrease in hydraulic production in Hauts-de-France, while Occitanie and Île-de-France show increases in total renewable production of 26.7% and 26.07% respectively. These fluctuations highlight the vulnerability of electricity grids to climatic hazards, a growing issue for energy security.

Analysis of Stakes

In the short term (1-6 months), the risks of conflict in the Middle East and West Africa could disrupt energy and raw material markets. An escalation between the United States and Iran, coupled with an attempted coup in an oil-producing country, could drive up crude oil and gas prices. Companies operating in the mining, oil and gas sectors must prepare for production interruptions and security degradations.

In the medium term (1-3 years), geopolitical fragmentation could lead to a remilitarization of alliances and an arms race. Europe, by strengthening its defense, could reduce its dependence on the United States, but this will require massive investments. The rivalry between China and the United States, via the SCO and other forums, could create distinct economic blocs, with divergent standards and technologies.

Potential losers are vulnerable countries like Iran, whose economy is suffocated, and African nations caught in proxy conflicts. Winners could be energy powers like Russia, which benefits from price volatility, and neutral countries like Oman, which play a mediating role in the Strait of Hormuz.

Prospective Hypotheses

Scenario 1: Generalized Escalation (probability 30%) : If sanctions against Iran intensify and Tehran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed 150 USD/barrel, causing a global recession. Israeli strikes in Gaza could extend to other fronts, leading to a regional war. Indicators: increased tensions in the strait, US military mobilization, rising risk premiums in markets.

Scenario 2: Selective Détente (probability 45%) : The United States and Russia could negotiate an agreement on Ukraine, reducing tensions in Europe. Iran, weakened, could accept a partial nuclear deal in exchange for sanctions relief. The SCO and the EU could cooperate on issues such as climate and maritime security. Indicators: resumption of talks, reduction of strikes, signals of flexibility from Tehran.

Scenario 3: Prolonged Status Quo (probability 25%) : Crises persist without resolution, creating chronic instability. Actors engage in proxy wars, sanctions accumulate, but without direct confrontation. Markets become accustomed to volatility, and companies adopt resilience strategies. Indicators: lack of diplomatic progress, sustained levels of violence, relative price stability.

Why This Matters

This report directly concerns you, whether you are an investor, business leader, or citizen. Fluctuations in precious metal and energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and security risks affect your portfolio, your business, and your daily life. Geopolitical fragmentation could redraw trade routes, alliances, and norms, with consequences for employment, inflation, and security. Understanding these dynamics is essential to anticipate crises and seize opportunities. As the world moves towards a multipolar order, one question remains: are current international institutions capable of managing this transition without descending into chaos?