The Strait of Hormuz under tension: the US-Iranian escalation redraws the global energy map

On September 7, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil surpassed the $97 mark, driven by a series of attacks between the United States and Iran that rekindle fears of a major supply disruption via the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, strikes targeted Saudi Aramco facilities, suggesting a geographical extension of the conflict. As Iran threatens to impose a restricted zone in this strategic passage, the international community holds its breath: a third of the world's oil transits through these waters.

Key points

• Iran hardens its stance in the Strait of Hormuz: following the expiration of an agreement and escalation with the United States, Tehran plans to establish a restricted zone imposing sanctions on incoming vessels. Details remain unclear, but this decision could set a dangerous precedent for freedom of navigation.

• Oil prices react sharply: Brent exceeded $97, an increase of more than $10 compared to late August. WTI stands at $91.48. Available data shows increased volatility, with notable price differences between sessions.

• Saudi infrastructure in the crosshairs: new strikes hit Saudi Aramco facilities, though the extent of the damage was not specified. This attack is part of a series of incidents that undermine regional energy security.

• Europe struggles to agree on defense: a high-level expert meeting, announced by the EU's foreign policy chief to strengthen common defense, was canceled at the last minute due to reluctance from Rome, Paris, and Berlin. This strategic cacophony weakens Europe's position in the face of multiple crises.

• The resilience of the Iranian regime: after a US-Israeli operation that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime survived thanks to a decentralization of power and adaptation, notably through the strengthening of the Revolutionary Guards. This capacity for resistance complicates the calculations of Western powers.

Context

The Strait of Hormuz, 33 kilometers wide, connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. For decades, it has been at the heart of tensions between Iran and Western powers. Iranian threats of closure, regularly brandished, have always been followed by periods of negotiation. But the elimination of Khamenei in 2026 disrupted the regime's internal balance, which seeks to assert its power through increasingly audacious actions. Simultaneously, the war in Ukraine has redefined alliances, and the strikes on Saudi facilities remind us that energy security remains a major geopolitical issue.

Key players

• Iran: weakened but resilient, the regime seeks to impose a balance of power. Its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz is its main leverage. The Revolutionary Guards, whose power has increased, might be tempted by spectacular actions.

• The United States: engaged in military and diplomatic escalation, they seek to contain Iran while preserving the stability of oil markets. Their naval presence in the region remains massive.

• Saudi Arabia: the primary victim of strikes on its facilities, it must reconcile its oil production with its internal security. Its alliances with Washington and Beijing are being tested.

• The European Union: divided on defense strategy, it appears as a weakened actor, unable to influence negotiations. The reluctance of Paris, Rome, and Berlin to strengthen common defense illustrates this fragmentation.

• Russia and China: indirect stakeholders, they could benefit from rising energy prices while seeking to stabilize their supplies.

Data and figures

According to institutional data, the price of Brent reached $96.02 on September 1, compared to $87.03 on August 31, an increase of more than 10% in one day. WTI followed a similar trajectory, rising from $87.03 to $91.48. Henry Hub natural gas remained stable at $2.90 per mmbtu, while jet fuel increased from $3.805 to $4.19 per gallon. These movements reflect a geopolitical risk premium that could persist.

Data on renewable energy production in France show high levels in several regions, with rates exceeding 38% for hydropower in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and wind power in Île-de-France. These figures, although not directly related to the oil crisis, highlight the vulnerability of economies dependent on fossil fuels.

Analysis of stakes

In the short term, the threat of a restricted zone in Hormuz could lead to a surge in oil prices, with repercussions on global inflation. Marine insurance companies could increase their premiums, further raising transportation costs. Net importing countries, such as India and Japan, would be particularly exposed.

In the medium term, if the escalation continues, investments in renewable energies could accelerate, as shown by the already high renewable production thresholds in France. But this transition will not be without its difficulties, and producing countries could use their market power to slow down this dynamic.

European divisions on common defense weaken the EU's ability to act as a geopolitical power. Meanwhile, the resilience of the Iranian regime suggests that military options may not be enough to make it yield.

Prospective hypotheses

Scenario 1: Controlled escalation (40% probability)

The United States and Iran continue their targeted strikes but avoid direct confrontation. The strait remains partially open, prices fluctuate between $90 and $100. Conditions: maintenance of indirect communication channels, absence of a major incident involving an oil tanker. Indicators: level of marine insurance premiums, statements by the Revolutionary Guards.

Scenario 2: Partial closure of the strait (30% probability)

Iran imposes its restricted zone, significantly disrupting traffic. Prices exceed $110, causing a global recession. Conditions: failure of negotiations, new American attack on Iranian soil. Indicators: movements of Iranian warships, official announcements from Tehran.

Scenario 3: Diplomatic de-escalation (30% probability)

Mediations lead to a freeze in hostilities, prices fall back below $85. Conditions: political will from both sides, role of China and Russia. Indicators: resumption of talks, easing of sanctions.

Why it matters

This crisis is not limited to oil markets: it directly affects household purchasing power, the security of European supplies, and the global geopolitical balance. The decisions made in the coming weeks will determine whether we enter an era of permanent energy conflicts or if cooperation mechanisms emerge. As European divisions persist, how can the EU exert influence against actors who do not hesitate to use energy as a weapon?