Electrification and Hydrocarbons: The New Geography of Global Energy Flows

On September 12, 2026, the Waidhaus gas interconnection point, a historic gateway for Russian gas to Germany, showed zero physical flow in both directions. On the same day, solar production exceeded 53% of the electricity mix in five French regions, well above the 15% alert threshold. Two opposing signals that tell the same story of a shift: the global energy system is reorganizing around renewable electrons and critical raw material supply chains, while hydrocarbons remain under pressure.

Key points

1. European natural gas is looking for a new lung. On September 12, 2026, the physical flow at the Oberkappel point (Austria-Germany) was 54.28 million kWh/day outgoing, compared to zero incoming. Waidhaus, Mallnow, and Emden EPT1 all showed zero flows. This configuration suggests a recomposition of gas routes towards southern and western Europe, with Austria and Italy as new pivots. Tarvisio (Austria-Italy) recorded 10.49 million kWh/day outgoing, confirming the growing role of the TAG route.

2. Oil prices are rising again, driven by a geopolitical premium. According to institutional data, Brent rose from 104.47 USD/bbl on September 7 to 109.51 USD/bbl on September 9, 2026, an increase of nearly 5% in two sessions. WTI followed the same trajectory, from 94.21 to 97.26 USD/bbl. This surge contrasts with the relative stability of US gas, with Henry Hub settling at 2.81 USD/mmbtu on September 9, slightly down for the week.

3. French renewable production crosses unprecedented thresholds. Alerts on September 12, 2026, show that solar production exceeds 53% in five metropolitan regions, wind power reaches 56.86% in Pays de la Loire, and hydropower accounts for 50.6% in Centre-Val de Loire. Corsica even shows 57.23% of total renewable production. These levels, well above the 15% threshold, signal local grid saturation and raise the question of storage and interconnection.

4. Oil producers are demanding refineries, not drilling. The presidency of Italian oil companies publicly stated that increasing national extraction would have a limited impact, and that gas supply would be much more beneficial. This discourse marks a turning point: European majors anticipate demand for gas and refined products, not a revival of domestic oil production.

5. Fuel subsidies remain a massive political lever in emerging economies. Petrobras received approximately 2.57 billion R$ in diesel marketing subsidies covering June 2026 sales, including 643.8 million for the first half and 1.92 billion for the second. This mechanism weighs on Brazilian public finances and distorts global price signals.

Context

The energy transition is no longer a project; it is an operational reality that is disrupting the balances established since the post-war period. Europe, dependent on Russian gas for decades, had to reorganize after 2022. Historic entry points like Waidhaus and Mallnow, which saw massive volumes transit, are now at a standstill. In parallel, the deployment of solar and wind power has reached penetration levels that are profoundly transforming electricity grids. Commodity prices, meanwhile, remain subject to recurrent geopolitical shocks, as evidenced by the recent surge in Brent above 109 USD/bbl. This dual dynamic—accelerated electrification and tensions over hydrocarbons—is redrawing the map of dependencies and vulnerabilities.

Key players

International oil companies arbitrate between extraction, refining, and distribution. Their recent discourse in Italy shows that they now prioritize gas and refining infrastructure, which are more profitable and less exposed to political risks. Their means of action: investments in LNG terminals and refineries. Their constraint: price volatility and regulatory pressure on fossil fuels.

European states seek to secure their supply while accelerating the transition. Germany, deprived of Russian gas, relies on LNG terminals and interconnections with Austria and Italy. France, with its renewable production alerts, must manage variability and storage. Brazil, via Petrobras, subsidizes diesel to contain inflation, at the cost of a high budgetary burden.

Regulators and network operators are on the front line. The exceeded alert thresholds in France signal local congestion that requires investments in interconnections and storage. The issue of cybersecurity and supply traceability is also emerging, as suggested by work on blockchain for electricity purchase compliance in post-conflict markets.

Producers of critical metals like beryllium, used in nuclear production, are seeing their demand increase with renewed interest in atomic energy. Their position is strategic, but their production capacity remains limited.

Data and figures

European gas flows on September 12, 2026, tell a story of rerouting. Oberkappel, a key entry point between Austria and Germany, showed 54.28 million kWh/day outgoing, compared to zero incoming. Tarvisio, on the Austro-Italian border, recorded 10.49 million kWh/day outgoing. Conversely, Waidhaus, Mallnow, and Emden EPT1 were at a standstill. These figures, from institutional data, confirm that the gas still arriving in Central Europe is taking southern routes, abandoning the northern corridors.

Energy commodity prices show a clear divergence. Brent rose from 104.47 USD/bbl on September 7 to 109.51 USD/bbl on September 9, 2026, while WTI climbed from 94.21 to 97.26 USD/bbl. Jet fuel followed, from 4.126 to 4.341 USD/gal, and US regular gasoline from 3.531 to 3.534 USD/gal. US natural gas, however, remained contained: 2.81 USD/mmbtu on September 9, compared to 2.90 USD/mmbtu on September 8 and 2.92 USD/mmbtu on September 4. This decorrelation between oil and gas is explained by segmented markets and limited liquefaction capacities.

In France, renewable production alerts on September 12, 2026, show exceptional penetration rates: 57.53% solar in Brittany, 54.87% in Burgundy, 53.3% in Normandy, 54.36% in Hauts-de-France, 53.1% in Pays de la Loire. Wind power reached 56.86% in Pays de la Loire, hydropower 50.6% in Centre-Val de Loire, and Corsica showed 57.23% of total renewable production. These levels, well above the 15% threshold, indicate excess local production that must be evacuated or stored.

In Brazil, Petrobras received 2.57 billion R$ in diesel subsidies for June 2026 sales, including 643.8 million for the first half and 1.92 billion for the second. This amount, relative to the volume of diesel sold, represents a significant burden on public finances.

Analysis of stakes

In the short term (1-6 months), pressure on oil prices is expected to persist if geopolitical tensions do not dissipate. The rise of Brent above 109 USD/bbl could fuel imported inflation in import-dependent economies, particularly in Europe and emerging countries. Brazilian diesel subsidies illustrate this dynamic: the state absorbs part of the shock to avoid a social surge. Oil producers, meanwhile, continue to invest in refining and gas, anticipating sustained demand.

In the medium term (1-3 years), the energy transition is expected to accelerate. The levels of renewable production achieved in France show that electrification can progress rapidly, but it exposes grids to flexibility and storage challenges. Interconnections, such as those at Oberkappel and Tarvisio, will play a crucial role in balancing supply and demand. Demand for critical metals, such as beryllium for nuclear power, could create new dependencies.

The winners of this transition are renewable electricity producers, battery and smart grid manufacturers, and countries that control critical metal supply chains. The losers are hydrocarbon producers whose assets are exposed to declining corridors, such as Waidhaus and Mallnow, and states that heavily subsidize fossil fuels.

However, this interpretation must be nuanced. Intermittent renewable production does not guarantee security of supply. French alerts signal local surpluses, but also risks of congestion. Gas remains essential for balancing the system, and zero flows at Waidhaus do not mean a disappearance of German demand, but a rerouting. Moreover, the rise in oil prices could be temporary if supply increases or demand slows.

Prospective hypotheses

Scenario 1: Acceleration of the transition and stabilization of fossil fuel prices. Probability: 45%. Conditions: continued investment in renewables, geopolitical détente in the Middle East, increased supply of non-Russian gas. Indicators to monitor: sustained drop in Brent below 100 USD/bbl, increased flows at Oberkappel and Tarvisio, new records for renewable production in Europe.

Scenario 2: Oil shock and fossil fuels' comeback. Probability: 30%. Conditions: military escalation in a producing region, sanctions on Iranian or Venezuelan exports, underinvestment in refining capacities. Indicators to monitor: Brent above 120 USD/bbl, increased fuel subsidies, slowdown in renewable projects.

Scenario 3: Stagnation and market fragmentation. Probability: 25%. Conditions: persistence of zero flows on northern corridors, inability to store renewable electricity, trade tensions over critical metals. Indicators to monitor: maintenance of zero flows at Waidhaus and Mallnow, saturation of French grids, rise in critical metal prices.

Why it matters

The energy transition is not just a matter of public policy: it determines the cost of energy you pay, the security of your country's supplies, and the competitiveness of its industry. Zero gas flows at Waidhaus mean that Europe has changed its mental map: gas no longer comes from the East, but from the South and LNG. Record solar production in France shows that electrification is progressing, but also that grids must adapt. And the surge in Brent above 109 USD/bbl reminds us that hydrocarbons remain a factor of inflation and geopolitical tension. In this context, the question is not whether the transition will take place, but at what speed and at what cost. Decisions made today on infrastructure, subsidies, and supply chains will determine tomorrow's energy bill. How is your country positioning itself in this recomposition?