Straits under tension, hybrid warfare and fractured alliances: the global map of conflicts is redrawing
** On September 18, 2026, a collision in the South China Sea, Polish accusations of Russian hybrid attacks, and an Iranian claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz illustrate a rapid reconfiguration of global power dynamics. Gray zones are becoming the main theater of rivalries between major powers, with direct repercussions on energy markets and supply chains.
Hook
On September 18, 2026, a Chinese coast guard vessel collided with the BRP Datu Magat Salamat, a Philippine supply boat, near the disputed Spratly Shoals. The same day, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk publicly accused Russia of preparing hybrid attacks against Ukraine's neighbors, while Tehran claimed full control of the Strait of Hormuz after attacking a small oil tanker. The simultaneity of these events is not coincidental: it reveals an accelerated reconfiguration of global power dynamics, where gray zones — maritime, spatial, informational — become the main theater of rivalries between major powers.
Key Points
1. The Strait of Hormuz as a global energy tipping point. Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked a small oil tanker and exploited the incident to assert full control over the strait. This escalation comes as Brent crude was trading at USD 130.80 per barrel on September 15, 2026, compared to USD 107.02 for WTI, according to available spot prices. The USD 23.78 gap between the two benchmarks reflects a geopolitical risk premium already priced in by markets, but which could widen if attacks multiply. Approximately one-fifth of the world's oil transits through this strait, and any sustained disruption would have immediate repercussions on pump prices in Europe and Asia.
2. The Black Sea becomes a commercial war zone. London maritime insurers have expanded the high-risk zone in the Black Sea due to a resurgence of attacks on vessels. This decision automatically increases insurance premiums for all ships using this corridor, raising the cost of transporting grain and raw materials. Russia, by placing French and European subsidiaries such as Nestlé, Auchan, and the former Leroy Merlin entity under temporary administration, has crossed a threshold in the economic war. Paris called on Moscow to reverse this decision, described as "temporary administration without justification." These measures create a dangerous precedent for foreign investments in Russia and beyond.
3. NATO accelerates its rearmament in the face of the hybrid threat. Germany received its first F-35 stealth fighter in Fort Worth, Texas, marking what Berlin calls a "new era" for the Luftwaffe. This delivery comes as Warsaw accuses Moscow of preparing hybrid attacks against Ukraine's neighboring allies. Poland, on the front line, plays an early warning role within the European Union. Conventional deterrence capabilities are strengthening, but the hybrid threat — cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation — remains difficult to counter with classic military tools.
4. China tests the limits of Philippine resilience in the South China Sea. The collision between a Chinese coast guard vessel and a Philippine supply boat near the Spratlys caused structural damage but no injuries. Manila denounces dangerous maneuvers, Beijing blames the Philippines. This incident adds to a series of confrontations in this disputed area, where China claims almost all the waters. The United States, historical ally of the Philippines, has not yet reacted publicly, but its silence could be interpreted as a test of its commitment in the region.
5. Space becomes a field for strategic alliances. Albania is preparing to sign the Artemis Accords, joining an international coalition for civilian space exploration. These accords, led by the United States, aim to establish rules for the exploitation of space resources. The NASA-JAXA XRISM mission also continues to observe interactions between a pulsar and its companion's wind, illustrating international scientific cooperation despite geopolitical tensions. Space is no longer a domain reserved for superpowers: it is becoming a vector of diplomatic influence and legal normalization.
Context
The period 2024-2026 marks an acceleration of global geopolitical tensions, with a proliferation of peripheral conflicts and a questioning of the balances inherited from the Cold War. The war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, has transformed Europe into a theater of indirect confrontation between Russia and NATO. In the Middle East, Iran uses its proxies — Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon — to project its power and challenge the regional order dominated by the United States and its Gulf allies. In Asia-Pacific, China's military buildup clashes with historical American alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. These dynamics intertwine: a crisis in a strait can have repercussions on global energy markets, supply chains, and the internal political balances of importing countries.
Key Players
Russia seeks to destabilize NATO through hybrid means — cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation — while consolidating its control over occupied Ukrainian territories. Moscow uses the takeover of foreign companies as a lever of economic pressure. Its constraints: an economy under sanctions, a dependence on energy exports to Asia, and an army tested by a long conflict.
Iran projects its power via its regional proxies and uses the Strait of Hormuz as a deterrent weapon. Tehran seeks to lift international sanctions while maintaining its capacity for nuisance. Its constraints: a fragile economy, persistent American military pressure, and internal tensions.
China pursues a strategy of territorial expansion in the South China Sea, testing the resilience of American alliances. Beijing uses its economic power as a diplomatic lever but faces resistance from neighboring countries and American military presence. Its constraints: a dependence on raw material and energy imports, and increasing pressure on its supply chains.
The United States attempts to maintain its global leadership while managing several theaters simultaneously — Ukraine, Middle East, Asia-Pacific. Washington supports its allies but must contend with a public increasingly reluctant to distant military engagements. The Pentagon has been accused of omitting the number of American soldiers killed in the war with Iran, fueling criticism of the administration's transparency.
The European Union is divided between countries most exposed to the Russian threat — Poland, Baltic states — and those favoring a diplomatic approach. Germany is strengthening its army but remains dependent on NATO for its defense. France, affected by Russian measures against its companies, seeks to maintain a balanced position between firmness and dialogue.
Data and Figures
Commodity prices reflect geopolitical tensions. Brent was trading at USD 130.80 per barrel on September 15, 2026, compared to USD 107.02 for WTI, according to available data. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, was trading at USD 4,378.795 per ounce on September 19, 2026, a historically high level reflecting strong demand for security. Silver was trading at USD 66.258 per ounce, platinum at USD 1,800.40, and palladium at USD 1,297.465. These high levels of precious metals suggest persistent investor distrust in the face of geopolitical risks.
Base metals show more contrasted prices: copper at USD 0.4622 per ounce, aluminum at USD 0.1022, nickel at USD 0.504, zinc at USD 0.1227, and lead at USD 0.0594. These relatively moderate levels indicate that global industrial demand is not yet affected by tensions, but a prolonged escalation in the straits could reverse this trend.
Henry Hub natural gas was trading at USD 2.97 per million BTU on September 15, 2026. This relatively low price contrasts with oil tensions and suggests that gas markets remain better supplied, particularly thanks to American liquefied natural gas exports.
Data on renewable energies in France show solar production exceeding thresholds in several regions: 57.53% in Brittany, 53.1% in Pays de la Loire, 54.36% in Hauts-de-France. Renewable gas production reaches 52.89% in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and 54.47% in Grand Est. These figures, although local, illustrate a fundamental trend: the energy transition is progressing, gradually reducing dependence on imported hydrocarbons and changing long-term geopolitical balances.
Analysis of Stakes
In the short term (1-6 months), the priority for actors is to manage crises without uncontrolled escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains the most dangerous point: any major disruption would push oil prices beyond USD 150, with immediate repercussions on global inflation. Maritime insurers, by expanding the high-risk zone in the Black Sea, are increasing the costs of international trade. French companies targeted by Russian measures may have to provision significant losses, affecting their financial results.
In the medium term (1-3 years), the fragmentation of the world order is expected to intensify. Russia, China, and Iran are strengthening their cooperation — energy, military, technological — to circumvent Western sanctions. NATO is accelerating its rearmament, but the hybrid threat remains difficult to counter. Global South countries, courted by both blocs, leverage their non-alignment to maximize their gains. Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are becoming theaters of influence where diplomatic and economic battles are being fought.
Who wins, who loses? Oil producers — Russia, Saudi Arabia, United States — benefit from high prices but risk flagging demand if the global economy slows down. Energy-importing countries, particularly in Europe, face persistent inflationary pressure. Multinational companies exposed to Russia or China must review their strategies. The defense and cybersecurity sectors are experiencing strong growth, driven by state demand.
Limitations of this analysis: available data do not allow for precise measurement of the impact of Russian hybrid attacks, which often remain unclaimed. Figures on American military losses in Iran are disputed, blurring the assessment of the United States' actual commitment. Finally, the simultaneity of events does not prove coordination between actors: China, Russia, and Iran pursue distinct interests, even if they converge on challenging the Western order.
Prospective Hypotheses
Scenario 1: Controlled Escalation (probability: 45%)
Tensions remain high but do not escalate into open conflict. Iran continues its limited provocations in the Strait of Hormuz, Russia pursues its hybrid attacks without crossing NATO's Article 5 threshold, China maintains its pressure in the South China Sea without direct armed conflict. Markets adapt to a permanent risk premium. Indicators to monitor: number of attacks on vessels, evolution of maritime insurance premiums, rhetoric of leaders at international summits.
Scenario 2: Major Trigger Incident (probability: 30%)
A serious incident — sinking of a vessel, deaths among military personnel of a NATO country, major cyberattack against critical infrastructure — triggers a military response. NATO invokes Article 5, China reacts in the South China Sea, Iran partially closes the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices exceed USD 150, financial markets crash. Indicators to monitor: troop movements, joint military exercises, recall of ambassadors.
Scenario 3: Negotiated Détente (probability: 25%)
Under economic pressure, major powers agree to negotiations. An agreement on the Iranian nuclear program is relaunched, Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, China and the Philippines find a modus vivendi in the South China Sea. Commodity prices fall, markets stabilize. Indicators to monitor: resumption of diplomatic talks, partial lifting of sanctions, calming statements from leaders.
Why This Matters
The convergence of these crises — energy, maritime, technological — means that global balances are being redrawn before our eyes. For European citizens, the consequences are direct: energy prices, inflation, security of supply, risk of cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. For businesses, the question is no longer whether they will be affected, but how they will adapt to a fragmented world where supply chains become weapons. The next major decision — a military strike, a diplomatic agreement, a cyberattack — could tip the world order in one direction or another. And what if the real question isn't who will control the straits, but who will be able to preserve a minimum of international cooperation in the face of common threats — climate, pandemics, artificial intelligence — that ignore borders?
This analysis was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence, from institutional sources and verifiable open data. AI Transparency