Bab el-Mandeb under Houthi control: the world on the brink of a major energy shock

Key Points

Houthi's lightning capture of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait: In a few days, Yemeni rebels secured the Yemeni Red Sea coast, captured the port of Mocha, and directly threaten global maritime traffic. This strait sees a significant portion of global oil and gas transit, and its blockage raises fears of a “real supply shock.”

Ormuz already under Iranian pressure: Tehran, a strategic ally of the Houthis, exerts significant pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, effectively blocked according to Bahraini authorities. This double lock on the two main global energy arteries constitutes an unprecedented situation.

Diplomatic and military response in the making: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan are discussing the activation of the Mecca Pact, still in its gestation phase. Bahrain refused to participate in a meeting proposed by Iran in Oman on Hormuz security, illustrating regional fragmentation.

Soaring commodity prices: Gold reached 4,348.99 USD/oz according to market data on September 12, 2026, while Henry Hub natural gas trades at 2.81 USD/mmbtu and jet fuel at 4.341 USD/gal. These levels reflect a growing geopolitical risk premium.

Increase in security incidents in Europe: Bulgaria is investigating a fire and explosions at an ammunition storage site, with authorities not ruling out “external interference.” In Germany, 150,000 people demonstrated against the AfD, one of whose candidates linked arms production and “remigration.”

Context

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 26 to 32 kilometers wide, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is the mandatory passage between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal. Its capture by the Houthis is part of a regional war triggered by an Israeli-American offensive in Iran, which has already disrupted global energy flows since early March. Iran, through its proxies, seeks to strangle strategic maritime routes to pressure its adversaries. This double-lock strategy—Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb—recalls the tensions of the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war, but with a multiplied capacity for harm due to modern drones and missiles.

Key Players

The Houthis: Non-state actors supported by Iran, they now control a critical portion of the Yemeni coastline. Their objective is to gain political recognition and strengthen their position in negotiations on Yemen's future. Their means: ballistic missiles, drones, sea mines, and attacks against commercial vessels. Their constraint: dependence on Iranian deliveries and the potential response from maritime coalitions.

Iran: A strategic ally of the Houthis, it uses them as leverage to pressure the United States and its allies. Tehran seeks to disrupt maritime traffic without triggering open war, while negotiating a possible agreement on its nuclear program. Its constraint: internal pressure, illustrated by the parliamentary debate on the law against foreign infiltration, which exposes divisions within the regime.

Saudi Arabia: Directly threatened by Houthi attacks on its territory and oil exports, it seeks to secure the Red Sea. The Mecca Pact, in gestation with Turkey and Pakistan, could become a collective defense alliance. Riyadh has significant military means but remains vulnerable to asymmetric attacks.

The United States: Engaged in an offensive against Iran, it seeks to maintain freedom of navigation and protect its regional allies. Its constraint: avoiding a generalized conflagration while responding to provocations.

The European Union: Dependent on energy flows via Suez, it is directly affected by the disruptions. Institutional data show that several French regions have high renewable production rates—57.23% in Corsica, 59.38% in Centre-Val de Loire for hydropower—which could partially mitigate energy vulnerability but does not compensate for dependence on imported hydrocarbons.

Data and Figures

Commodity prices reflect the anticipation of a supply shock. Gold, a safe haven, stands at 4,348.99 USD/oz, a historically high level. Platinum (1,791.50 USD/oz) and palladium (1,297.21 USD/oz) are also rising. Base metals—copper at 0.4508 USD/oz, aluminum at 0.1009 USD/oz, nickel at 0.5127 USD/oz—show tensions in industrial supply chains. Henry Hub natural gas at 2.81 USD/mmbtu remains contained, but jet fuel at 4.341 USD/gal and gasoline at 3.534 USD/gal signal pressure on refined products.

Kuwait's oil production has fallen by 52.85%, according to available data, an indicator of the impact of disruptions on infrastructure and flows. Energy alert thresholds have been crossed in many French regions: solar production in Brittany reaches 57.53%, wind power in Nouvelle-Aquitaine 57.64%, bioenergies in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes 57.79%. These figures, while positive for the transition, are not enough to compensate for dependence on imported hydrocarbons via threatened straits.

Analysis of Stakes

In the short term (1-6 months), the priority for actors is to secure maritime routes. The Houthis could try to consolidate their control over Bab el-Mandeb by installing coastal missile batteries and drones, making passage extremely risky for commercial vessels. Marine insurers would increase risk premiums, raising transport costs. European countries, dependent on imported gas and oil, would suffer additional inflation.

The most affected sectors would be maritime transport, energy, automotive, and chemicals. Oil companies would have to reroute their cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by 10 to 15 days and increasing costs. Asian countries, major importers of Gulf oil, would also be affected.

In the medium term (1-3 years), the situation could accelerate the energy transition in Europe, with increased support for renewables and nuclear power. Data already shows high rates of renewable production in some regions, but intermittency and storage remain challenges. Geopolitical fragmentation could lead to increased militarization of maritime routes, with permanent naval coalitions.

Prospective Hypotheses

Scenario 1: Controlled Escalation (50% probability) — The Houthis maintain control over Bab el-Mandeb but avoid direct attacks against American warships. Iran continues to pressure Hormuz without a total closure. Oil prices increase by 20 to 30% but stabilize. Conditions: absence of major Israeli or American retaliation against Iran, successful Omani mediation. Indicators to monitor: number of attacks on tankers, statements from the Mecca Pact, movements of the American fleet.

Scenario 2: Regional Conflagration (30% probability) — A major Houthi attack against an American or Saudi vessel triggers retaliatory strikes, leading to a total closure of Hormuz by Iran. The price of a barrel exceeds 150 USD, gold crosses 5,000 USD/oz. Conditions: failure of negotiations, major naval incident, activation of the Mecca Pact. Indicators: airstrikes, mobilization of aircraft carriers, diplomatic ruptures.

Scenario 3: Negotiated De-escalation (20% probability) — Under international pressure, Iran agrees to moderate its proxies in exchange for sanctions relief. The Houthis obtain political guarantees and partially reopen the strait. Conditions: change in Iranian leadership, nuclear agreement, Chinese mediation. Indicators: resumption of commercial flights, decrease in insurance premiums, appeased statements from Tehran.

Why it's important

Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb is not just another episode in regional conflicts. It directly affects every consumer's wallet: fuel, transport, food. Data shows that energy and metal prices are already under pressure, and prolonged disruption could tip the global economy into recession. For decision-makers, the question is no longer whether the strait will be reopened, but at what cost and within what geopolitical framework. The fragmentation of alliances—Bahrain's refusal, internal debates in Iran, demonstrations in Germany—reveals an era where strategic certainties are collapsing. How can Europe, dependent and divided, secure its supplies without fueling military escalation?