Energy Transition and Renewable Production

At the end of July, China's installed solar capacity surpassed that of coal: 1,286 gigawatts against 1,285. A shift that masks the contradictions of a global energy transition with discordant rhythms.

Key points

Japan will abandon solar silicon subsidies from 2027 to favor perovskite cells, a promising but still costly technology. This decision reveals a race for innovation to overcome Chinese dominance in conventional panels.
In Mexico, the public company CFE plans to invest $32.9 billion by 2030 for 18.6 GW of new capacity, of which 82% will be renewable and 5.4 GW solar. A strong signal for Latin America.
In France, regional renewable production indicators show high volatility: hydraulic production in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes fell by 26.11%, while wind power in Centre-Val de Loire jumped by 26.83%. Intermittency remains the main challenge.
Nuclear fusion attracts private capital: in Shanghai, companies in the sector have raised nearly $2.7 billion, a sign of an industrial bet on a disruptive energy that is still uncertain.
Data centers, electricity-hungry, accelerate demand: an American company has a 3 GW pipeline for data centers, including 600 MW for Microsoft and Meta. This pressure requires securing low-carbon electricity.

Context

Since the 2010s, the dramatic drop in solar and wind costs has disrupted energy balances. China has invested massively, becoming the world's leading panel manufacturer. In Europe, the Green Deal set decarbonization targets, but gas dependence was highlighted by the 2022 crisis. Today, the transition is entering a consolidation phase: grids must absorb variable production, storage is becoming crucial, and critical metals are becoming a geopolitical issue.

Key players

States play a central role, but with divergent strategies: China locks down its solar supply chain, Japan seeks to circumvent silicon dependence, Mexico relies on public energy while opening up to renewables. Technology companies (Microsoft, Meta) exert influence through their massive demand for electricity for artificial intelligence. Storage developers are lowering prices to democratize self-consumption. Finally, farmers are experimenting with agrivoltaics to protect crops from heatwaves while producing energy.

Data and figures

According to institutional data, prices of critical metals remain high: copper trades at 0.4555 USD/oz, silver at 66.38 USD/oz, nickel at 0.5207 USD/oz. These levels increase the cost of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries, even if Henry Hub natural gas, which has fallen to 2.70 USD/mmbtu, exerts competitive pressure on renewables. According to available public indicators, European cross-border gas flows remain active: the VIP Oberkappel interconnection point between Austria and Germany recorded an outflow of 60.86 million kWh per day at the end of August. In parallel, renewable production alerts in France indicate sudden variations depending on the region, with hydraulic drops of more than 26% in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and wind power increases of nearly 27% in Centre-Val de Loire.

Analysis of challenges

In the short