Expensive oil, gas under tension: the global energy crisis changes nature.
American oil executives warn of an already present fuel crisis, while crude extends its rise and Asian bonds retreat under inflationary pressure. Petrobras secures 0.8 Mt/year of LNG over 20 years with Sempra, and European gas flows reveal a constrained recomposition. Forward-looking scenarios outline a prolonged escalation (40%), a relaxation (35%), or a shock on critical metals (25%).
Accroche: Michael Wirth, CEO of Chevron, and several of his American peers warned this week that the global fuel crisis is no longer a hypothesis: it is here. At the same time, crude oil extends its rise and Asian bonds retreat under the pressure of inflation expectations.
Key Points
A barrel that contaminates everything — The rise in oil prices, fueled by the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East, is now spreading across the entire yield curve. Asian bond markets retreated, a sign that investors are pricing in a scenario of sustainably high interest rates. Gold remains around $4,300 an ounce, confirming its function as a safe haven against monetary uncertainty.
LNG, a new battlefield — Petrobras has secured a 20-year contract with Sempra Infrastructure for 0.8 million tons per year of liquefied natural gas, the supply of which will come from the Port Arthur liquefaction terminal in Texas. This move is part of a broader trend: major Asian buyers are diversifying their sources, while the expansion of capacity in the Middle East threatens to create a structural oversupply in the medium term. The contradiction is striking: immediate shortage, announced surplus.
European infrastructure under strain — Physical gas flows to Germany reveal a contrasting situation. The VIP Oberkappel entry point (Austria-Germany) showed 54.3 million kWh/day on September 12, 2026, while outgoing flows to Italy via Tarvisio reached 10.5 million kWh/day. More significantly: the Emden EPT1 (Norway-Germany), VIP Waidhaus (Czech Republic-Germany), and Mallnow (Poland-Germany) entry points all showed zero flows. This geography depicts a Europe recomposing its supplies, but with persistent bottlenecks.
The energy transition accelerates in fits and starts — Renewable production threshold alerts are multiplying in France: renewable gas in Brittany (52.58%), wind in Pays de la Loire (50.5%), hydro in Centre-Val de Loire (50.6%), solar in Corsica (50%). These localized exceedances signal a growing integration of renewables into the electricity mix. In Brazil, solar coupled with battery storage is expected to reduce operational costs by 40% by 2035, according to available sectoral projections.
Raw materials under differentiated pressure — Copper remains near $14,000 per ton, with new deliveries signaling an initial easing of supply. Nickel, however, has stalled: a producer has suspended the intensification of its production in Indonesia due to a water shortage. Zinc (0.12 USD/oz), lead (0.06 USD/oz), and aluminum (0.10 USD/oz) are moving within narrow ranges, while precious metals — gold at 4,349 USD/oz, platinum at 1,791 USD/oz, palladium at 1,297 USD/oz — capture most of the geopolitical risk premium.
Context
The current configuration extends a dynamic initiated by supply shocks of the previous decade. Europe has reduced its dependence on Russian gas, but at the cost of fragmented sources and increased price volatility. The Middle East, for its part, has massively invested in LNG, anticipating sustained Asian demand. This dual transformation — European diversification and Middle Eastern expansion — creates a more interconnected global market, and thus more vulnerable to local shocks. The episode of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, which is preparing for a historic IPO, illustrates this recomposition: Africa seeks to capture more added value from its resources.
Key Players
American oil majors, through their leaders, warn about the fuel crisis while seeking to increase their upstream investments — a classic signal of a high cycle. Petrobras, for its part, secures its LNG supplies for two decades, arbitrating between energy security and cost. Asian buyers, led by Japan and South Korea, are actively diversifying their portfolios, reducing their exposure to single suppliers. In Europe, network operators must contend with reversing flows and closing entry points, as illustrated by physical flow data. Finally, producers of critical metals face environmental constraints — the water shortage in Indonesia for nickel is an illustration — which redefine cost equations.
Data and Figures
Price indicators tell a story of differentiated tensions. Henry Hub natural gas stands at 2.81 USD/mmbtu, a moderate level that contrasts with European and Asian prices. US jet fuel at 4.34 USD/gallon and regular gasoline at 3.53 USD/gallon reflect pressure on refined products. Gas flows to Germany, measured on September 12, 2026, show a multi-speed system: Oberkappel supplies the south of the country, while northern and eastern entry points are at a standstill. These data suggest that European supply security now relies on a reduced number of corridors, increasing vulnerability to local disruptions.
Analysis of Stakes
In the short term, the priority is managing imported inflation. Rising oil prices are transmitted to transport costs, then to consumer prices, forcing central banks to maintain a restrictive stance. The most exposed sectors are air transport, logistics, and petrochemicals. In the medium term, the central question is the balance between LNG supply and demand. If Middle Eastern projects mature as planned, the market could shift to a surplus, driving down prices and penalizing high-cost producers. The winners of the current period are precious metal producers and integrated oil companies; the losers are energy-importing economies and energy-intensive industries.
An alternative reading deserves consideration: the fuel crisis mentioned by oil executives could be partly rhetorical, aimed at justifying upstream investments in the context of energy transition. European flow data show that the system is functioning, even under strain. The true vulnerability may not be global supply, but the geographical distribution of capacities and storage capacity.
Forward-looking Hypotheses
Scenario 1 — Prolonged escalation (probability: 40%): The conflict in the Middle East expands, disrupting shipping routes and infrastructure. Crude oil remains above current levels, inflation remains high, and central banks prolong their tightening. Indicators to monitor: Strait of Hormuz flows, IEA strategic stocks, US yield curve.
Scenario 2 — De-escalation and normalization (probability: 35%): A de-escalation in the Middle East brings a reduced risk premium. Oil prices retreat, offering a respite to importing economies. LNG remains abundant, and investments in renewables accelerate. Indicators to monitor: diplomatic announcements, long-term LNG contracts, European carbon price.
Scenario 3 — Critical metals supply shock (probability: 25%): Environmental constraints — water, energy, regulation — limit the supply of nickel, copper, and lithium. Prices soar, penalizing the energy transition itself. Indicators to monitor: water levels in Indonesia, mining permits in Chile and DRC, LME stocks.
Why it matters
What is at stake goes beyond financial markets. The price of energy determines the cost of heating, fuel, and food. Supply security conditions industrial sovereignty. And the ability to finance the energy transition directly depends on the margins generated by fossil fuel players. The question is no longer whether the world will move away from fossil fuels, but at what pace and at what cost — and who will pay the price. European gas flow data show that the answer is being built corridor by corridor, contract by contract. Your energy bill in 2027 will depend on decisions made this week.
This analysis was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence, from institutional sources and verifiable open data. AI Transparency