The Tehran-Moscow axis redraws the map of crises, from Hormuz to the Taiwan Strait

On August 28, 2026, a Turkish drone entered Greek airspace near Alexandroupolis, flying over an airport as a passenger plane was preparing to take off. Hellenic F-16s had to intercept the aircraft, revealing a silent escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean, far from the spotlight on the Strait of Hormuz. This incident, combined with Russian strikes on Kyiv and American maneuvers in the Persian Gulf, outlines a system of interconnected crises where each regional spark can ignite the entire global security architecture.

Key points

• The Strait of Hormuz remains partially paralyzed: WTI crude oil prices initially fell on rumors of a deal, then rebounded after Iran fired missiles, according to market data. Maritime traffic is «open» but far from normal, with mines cleared by the United States in internationally recognized shipping lanes.
• The war with Iran offered Russia a strategic opening in Europe: Washington is consuming weapon stockpiles that Europe needs to deter Moscow, weakening NATO's ability to support Ukraine in the long term.
• Russian strikes on the Kyiv region have intensified, deliberately targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a «weaponization» of winter strategy, causing one death and several injuries among civilians.
• The dissolution of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their integration into the Syrian army, formalized by the appointment of their commander as an advisor to President al-Sharaa, marks a decisive turning point in the Syrian balance, with implicit support from Washington.
• Colombia and Ecuador, with the support of the U.S. Southern Command, are discussing the creation of a binational border base to combat criminal groups linked to drug trafficking and illegal mining, expanding the American military presence in South America.

Context

These crises are part of a world undergoing profound change, where traditional frameworks of thought are fading, as highlighted by a major prospective analysis published in September 2026. The rules-based order is fragmented, and each region seeks to maximize its interests in a context of competition between major powers. The Eastern Mediterranean remains a historical flashpoint between Greece and Turkey, with recurrent airspace violations, but the Alexandroupolis incident adds a new dimension: proximity to an active civilian airport. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, has already been a scene of tensions in the 1980s, but the current crisis extends to the entire Persian Gulf, with direct implications for energy prices and supply security.

Key actors

• United States: Under a Trump administration, they seek both to maximize pressure on Iran (expanded sanctions) and to avoid a generalized conflagration. Southern Command is extending its influence in South America, while the Pentagon must manage limited resources in the face of multiple commitments (Hormuz, Ukraine, Indo-Pacific).
• Russia: It exploits the American focus on Iran to strengthen its position in Ukraine and Syria. Moscow uses its drones and missiles to wear down Ukraine, while consolidating its alliance with Tehran, which provides it with technology and strategic coordination.
• Iran: Threatened by sanctions and strikes, it seeks to restore its deterrence by threatening the Strait of Hormuz, but also by relying on its regional proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis). Its objective is to force a relaxation of sanctions while maintaining its nuclear program.
• Turkey: It uses the drone card to test the limits of NATO and Greece, while playing an ambiguous role in Syria and Libya. Ankara wants to influence regional recomposition, but its ambitions clash with the reality of alliances.
• Greece: On the front line against Turkish incursions, it is modernizing its air defense and seeking European support, but its capabilities remain limited.

Data and figures

According to available public indicators, gold reached 4,454.925 USD per ounce at the end of August 2026, reflecting the flight to safe-haven assets, while WTI crude oil fluctuated around 2.70 USD per MMBtu for Henry Hub natural gas, and 3.619 USD per gallon for aviation fuel. These figures show increased volatility in energy markets, with peaks linked to geopolitical announcements. Furthermore, renewable energy production in France experienced notable regional variations, with a 26% decrease in hydraulic production in Hauts-de-France, while Occitanie recorded a 26.7% increase in its total renewable production, according to institutional data. These fluctuations, although moderate, highlight the vulnerability of electricity grids to climate shocks, an issue that superimposes itself on geopolitical crises.

Analysis of issues

In the short term (1-6 months), the priority is to avoid a direct military escalation between the United States and Iran, which would cause a surge in oil prices and a major disruption of global supply chains. Shipping companies are hesitant to send their vessels back to Hormuz, and insurance premiums remain high. In Europe, Russia could intensify its strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure before winter, testing the resilience of allies. In the medium term (1-3 years), the redistribution of American military capabilities to the Middle East could weaken deterrence in Europe and Asia, creating windows of opportunity for Russia and China. European countries, aware of this deficit, are increasing their defense budgets, but armament programs (such as the German F127 frigates) face cost overruns and delays, limiting their ability to compensate quickly.

This interpretation is, however, contested: some analysts believe that Russia is overestimated and that Iran, weakened by sanctions, cannot sustain a prolonged conflict. Others point out that the United States has the means to manage several theaters simultaneously, thanks to its technological superiority and its allies. The reality is probably somewhere in between, with reduced room for maneuver for each actor.

Prospective hypotheses

• Scenario 1: Controlled escalation (40% probability) – The United States and Iran reach a tacit agreement on Hormuz, avoiding direct confrontation, but tensions persist in Syria and Ukraine. Indicators: gradual resumption of maritime traffic in Hormuz, oil prices falling below 80 USD per barrel, resumption of nuclear talks.
• Scenario 2: Regional conflagration (30% probability) – A military incident (strike on a warship, attack on a civilian airport) triggers a massive retaliation, leading to a complete closure of Hormuz and a broader American intervention. Indicators: increased security alerts, fleet movements, belligerent rhetoric.
• Scenario 3: Lasting fragmentation (30% probability) – Crises persist without resolution, with each actor consolidating its positions, and a gradual normalization of instability. Indicators: multiplication of low-intensity incidents, absence of negotiations, market adaptation to high prices.

Why it's important

These dynamics directly affect energy prices, supply security, and global economic stability. Decisions made in the coming months will determine whether we enter an era of multiple conflicts or if a new security architecture can emerge. For citizens, this translates into heavier energy bills, uncertainties about employment in sectors dependent on international trade, and, in some regions, direct threats to security. The question is no longer whether a crisis will occur, but how global actors will choose to respond to it.