Global Geopolitics: Mutations, Technological Rivalries, and Risks of Local Conflicts

The global geopolitical landscape is currently characterized by profound change, where traditional frameworks of thought are fading. This transformation is analyzed as being at the heart of storms, with major challenges identified for the year 2027, notably the adaptation of the European Union to contemporary challenges and the posture of the Americas under a Trump administration. In this fragmented international order, the struggle for technological primacy and the management of conflict risks emerge as central concerns.

A World Order in Profound Transformation and its Implications
The beginning of the second half of the 2020s is characterized by an unprecedented geopolitical transformation, where traditional frameworks of thought and structures that have long governed international relations are gradually fading. This period is described as being at the heart of storms, signaling an era of increased turbulence and uncertainty. Among the major challenges identified for the year 2027, the adaptation of the European Union stands out as a strategic priority. The EU is faced with the need to redefine its posture and mechanisms in the face of complex contemporary challenges, which may include economic pressures, security threats, and internal and external political developments. Concurrently, the posture of the Americas, particularly under a Trump administration, is perceived as a determining factor in the evolution of the international scene. Such an administration could potentially reshape alliances, trade policies, and diplomatic approaches, thereby influencing the balance of power and the nature of global interactions. These dynamics highlight a growing fragmentation of the international order, where actors must navigate an environment of increased competition and selective cooperation, far from clear unipolar or bipolar paradigms.

Technological Competition, Supply Chains, and Economic Risks
In this context of international fragmentation, technological power has become a central issue in geopolitical competition. An intense struggle for strategic primacy notably opposes the United States and China, each seeking to assert its supremacy in key technological domains. This rivalry is not limited to innovation but extends to the ability to control and secure critical supply chains. Semiconductors, for example, are at the heart of this competition, their production and distribution being heavily dependent on specific resources, such as rare earths. Dependencies on these strategic materials introduce significant risks to the global supply chain, making economies vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions. To assess and manage these risks, an explainable framework integrating FRAM, AHP, and XAI methodologies has been developed, offering a structured approach to understanding vulnerabilities. The impact of these geopolitical risks is not limited to states but directly affects businesses. Studies have analyzed firm-level effects, demonstrating how geopolitical uncertainty can influence investment decisions, production strategies, and operational resilience of companies. Securing supplies and diversifying sources thus become strategic imperatives for governments and industries to minimize exposure to external shocks and maintain competitiveness in a volatile global environment.

Manifestations of Conflict Risks and Asymmetric Threats
Conflict risks manifest in various forms, ranging from traditional armed clashes to asymmetric and cybernetic threats. A striking example of armed conflict is the attack that occurred in Niger on August 1, 2026, where about ten soldiers were killed during an operation attributed to Boko Haram. This event highlights the persistence and gravity of threats posed by non-state groups, which continue to destabilize entire regions and cause significant human losses. These local conflicts have broader repercussions, contributing to regional instability and potentially to humanitarian or migratory crises. Parallel to armed conflicts, cyberattacks represent another facet of geopolitical risks. In Brazil, the Instagram profiles of several prominent political figures, including Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues, Jaques Wagner, and Rui Costa, were targeted by cyberattacks just before a convention. Although the consulted sources do not provide details on the attribution of these attacks to state actors or their direct geopolitical motivations, they illustrate the growing vulnerability of digital infrastructures and communication platforms to malicious actors. These incidents, whether military or cybernetic, have tangible effects on political stability, national security, and public trust, and fall within the broader framework of the effects of geopolitical risks on businesses and societies. The proliferation of these threats demands constant vigilance and the development of defense and resilience strategies adapted to an increasingly broad spectrum of risks.

In summary, the beginning of the second half of the 2020s is marked by a profound reconfiguration of the world order, where competition for technological power and the management of supply chain vulnerabilities are key drivers of geopolitics. Conflict risks, whether military or cybernetic in nature, persist and manifest at local and international levels, requiring constant adaptation from actors. Understanding these dynamics is essential for anticipating future challenges and developing resilient strategies in an increasingly uncertain global environment.