Asbestos, mining pollution and deregulation: public health facing the environmental legacy
The article examines three simultaneous environmental crises: asbestos contamination in Mafefe (South Africa), cobalt and copper mining pollution in Lualaba (DRC) where 98% of hourly measurements exceed WHO thresholds, and American deregulation of power plant emissions. It analyzes the health consequences, regulatory dynamics, and proposes three prospective scenarios.
Hook: In Mafefe, in South Africa's Limpopo province, residents have been living for over thirty years on asbestos tailings from abandoned mines. The death of Mampuru Thobejane, diagnosed with asbestosis, forced authorities to launch a screening program. At the same time, the US administration is removing emission limits for coal and gas power plants, while independent measurements in the Democratic Republic of Congo reveal that nearly 98% of hourly mining pollution readings exceed health safety thresholds.
Key points
1. A toxic legacy that still kills. In South Africa, the community of Mafefe is suffering the direct consequences of asbestos mining that ceased over three decades ago. The death of Mampuru Thobejane, diagnosed with asbestosis, forced authorities to launch an integrated screening program for asbestos-related diseases. The problem extends beyond Mafefe, affecting other communities like Ga-Mathabatha. The case illustrates a broader issue: the administrative closure of a site never means the end of its health impact, especially when residues remain in place and populations continue to live there.
2. Mining depollution, a blind spot in the energy transition. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, in Lualaba province, the extraction of copper and cobalt — two critical metals for batteries and electrical grids — generates air contamination whose levels massively exceed international health recommendations. According to independent measurements, nearly 98% of hourly readings exceed the World Health Organization's safety thresholds. In other words, global demand for low-carbon technologies fuels local pollution whose health cost is neither internalized nor compensated.
3. US regulatory rollback as a global signal. The US administration has begun dismantling climate safeguards inherited from the previous decade, by removing emission limits applicable to coal and gas power plants. This decision is not just a political gesture: it changes the economic calculation for operators, who no longer have to integrate the cost of depollution into their investments. For European industrialists subject to stricter standards, the competitiveness gap mechanically widens.
4. Air quality is also deteriorating in Asia. Singapore recorded its worst air quality levels since 2019 in 2026, a signal that contrasts with its image as a model city-state in environmental governance. This type of episode reminds us that air pollution respects neither borders nor development levels: it affects the richest metropolises as well as the poorest extraction zones.
5. Research is organizing, slowly. Recent scientific work focuses on technical solutions: water-resistant catalysts for air pollutant removal, biofiltration media made from recycled polymers for decentralized wastewater treatment, or industrial engineering frameworks for electronic waste recycling. These advances exist, but their deployment on the scale of exposed populations remains far below identified needs.
Context
The relationship between industrial extraction and public health is not new: South African asbestos mines were among the largest in the world before their gradual closure in the 1980s and 1990s. What is changing is the scale and nature of exposures. The energy transition has shifted pressure towards metals like cobalt and copper, of which the DRC is a major producer. In parallel, major powers oscillate between strengthening and deregulating environmental regulations, creating a fragmented regulatory landscape where local populations often pay the price of inaction.
Key players
National governments play an ambivalent role: South Africa launches screenings but has not remediated contaminated sites; the United States deregulates in the name of competitiveness; the DRC attracts mining investments without imposing binding health standards. Environmental NGOs document, alert, and try to influence international funding, but their influence depends on state cooperation. Industrialists — mining, energy, aeronautics — arbitrate between compliance costs and reputational risks. Finally, financial institutions are progressively integrating nature risk into their stress tests, which could modify the financing conditions for the most polluting projects.
Data and figures
Available data show that energy prices remain under pressure: Brent crude traded around $130.8 per barrel and WTI around $107 per barrel in mid-September 2026, levels that increase the cost of alternatives to fossil fuels. Henry Hub natural gas, at $2.97 per million BTU, remains cheap, which maintains the competitiveness of gas in electricity production — including in plants whose emission limits have just been lifted. Furthermore, the expansion of LNG infrastructure and sustainable aviation fuels creates new markets for industrial equipment, but data on raw material price trends needed for these sectors remain incomplete to assess their real environmental impact.
Analysis of issues
In the short term, US deregulation is expected to result in a measurable increase in emissions from the electricity sector, with a direct effect on air quality in urban and peri-urban areas. Populations living near coal-fired power plants are the first exposed. In the medium term, the regulatory gap between the United States and Europe could accelerate industrial relocations in energy-intensive sectors, weakening the European industrial base and reducing the EU's ability to impose its standards globally.
In critical metal-producing countries, pressure is increasing: demand for cobalt and copper will not wane, but local communities are beginning to demand health and environmental compensation. Mining companies that do not take the lead expose themselves to operational blockages, litigation, and financing difficulties.
Prospective hypotheses
Scenario 1 — Degraded status quo (probability: 55%). The United States maintains its deregulatory course, Europe preserves its standards but without strengthening them, and producing countries continue to extract without depolluting. Exposed populations remain without effective recourse. Indicators to monitor: evolution of US electricity sector emissions, number of new mining sites opened without a health impact assessment.
Scenario 2 — Partial regulatory awakening (probability: 30%). Under pressure from sensitized public opinion and climate litigation, some states or jurisdictions strengthen their requirements, particularly on the depollution of abandoned mining sites. International financing increasingly conditions its loans on health guarantees. Indicators to monitor: announcements of depollution programs, evolution of ESG criteria of major banks.
Scenario 3 — Major health crisis (probability: 15%). An acute pollution episode — mining site fire, massive contamination of groundwater — triggers international mobilization and abrupt regulatory changes. Indicators to monitor: emergency reports from health agencies, sudden media coverage of previously ignored areas.
Why it matters
Environmental public health is not a distant subject reserved for developing countries or industrial zones. Air pollutants cross borders, critical metals extracted under toxic conditions end up in electric vehicles and smartphones of consumers worldwide, and regulatory decisions made in one capital affect costs and standards everywhere else. The question is not whether the energy transition will happen, but at what health cost and for whom. Available data suggest that this cost is currently borne very unequally — and there is no guarantee that it will remain so.
This analysis was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence, from institutional sources and verifiable open data. AI Transparency